Ukushisa komhlaba wonkana kungumphumela wesikhathi eside wokuphelelwa umoya komoya ophefumulayo, ngokuyinhloko i-carbon dioxide ne-methane, okuthinta izinga lokushisa komhlaba lapho ziqwabelana emkhathini futhi zigcina ukushisa kwelanga. Lesi sihloko bekuxoxiswana ngaso isikhathi eside. Abanye abantu bayazibuza ukuthi ngabe lokhu kwenzeka ngempela yini, futhi uma kunjalo, ingabe zonke izenzo zomuntu, izehlakalo zemvelo, noma zombili?

Uma sikhuluma ngokushisa komhlaba, akusho ukuthi izinga lokushisa lomoya ehlobo leli liphakeme kancane kunangaphambili. Sikhuluma ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ngoshintsho olwenzeka emvelweni wethu nasemkhathini isikhathi eside, emashumini eminyaka, hhayi isizini eyodwa kuphela. Ukuguqulwa kwesimo sezulu kuthinta i-hydrology kanye ne-biology yeplanethi - konke, kubandakanya umoya, imvula kanye lokushisa kuyaxhuma. Ososayensi baqaphela ukuthi isimo sezulu soMhlaba sinomlando omude wokuhlukahluka: ukusuka emazingeni okushisa aphansi kakhulu phakathi nenkathi yeqhwa kuya phezulu kakhulu. Lezi zinguquko kwesinye isikhathi zenzeka emashumini eminyaka ambalwa, futhi kwesinye isikhathi ziye zisebenze izinkulungwane zeminyaka. Yini esingayilindela ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu okukhona njengamanje?

Ososayensi abafunda izimo zethu zezulu bayaqapha futhi balinganise ushintsho olwenzekayo endaweni esihlala kuyo. Isibonelo, amaqhwa asezintabeni abe mancane kakhulu kunangeminyaka engu-150 eyedlule, futhi eminyakeni eyikhulu edlule, izinga lokushisa lomhlaba jikelele selikhuphuke cishe ngama-degree angu-0,8 Celsius. Imodeli yekhompyutha ivumela ososayensi ukubikezela ukuthi yini engenzeka uma konke kwenzeka ngesivinini esifanayo. Ekupheleni kwekhulu lama-21, izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile lingakhuphukela kuma-Celsius angama-1.1-6.4.

Esihlokweni esingezansi, sibheka imiphumela emibi eyi-10 yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.

10. Ukunyuka kwezinga lolwandle

Ukwanda kokushisa komhlaba akusho ukuthi i-Arctic izofudumala njengaseMiami, kodwa lokhu kusho ukuthi izinga lolwandle lizokhuphuka kakhulu. Ngabe ukukhuphuka kwezinga lokushisa kuhlobene kanjani nokwenyuka kwamazinga amanzi? Izinga lokushisa eliphakeme libonisa ukuthi iqhwa, iqhwa lolwandle ne-polar iqalile ukuncibilika, okunyusa inani lamanzi olwandle nasolwandle.

Isibonelo, ososayensi, bakwazile ukukala ukuthi amanzi ancibilika avela eqhweni laseGreenland athinta kanjani i-United States: inani lamanzi eMfuleni iColorado lenyuke kaningana. Ngokusho kososayensi, ngokuncibilika kwamashalofu eqhwa eGreenland nase-Antarctica, izinga lolwandle lingakhuphuka ngamamitha angama-21 ngo-2100. Lokhu-ke kusho ukuthi iziqhingi eziningi zase-Indonesia kanye nezindawo ezinamanzi asezingeni eliphansi zizoba nezikhukhula.

9. Ukunciphisa inani leqhwa

Awudingi ukuba nemishini ekhethekile onayo ukuze ubone ukuthi inani leqhwa emhlabeni wonke liyancipha.

I-tundra, eyayikade inefafrost, okwamanje igcwele impilo yezitshalo.

Umthamo weqhwa laseHimalaya elondla uMfula iGanges, ohlinzeka ngokuphuza amanzi kubantu abangaba yizigidi ezingama-500, wehliswa ngamamitha angama-37 ngonyaka.

Ukushiswa komlilo okushisayo okhukhule kulo lonke elaseYurophu ngonyaka we-2003 futhi kwafuna izimpilo zabantu abangama-35,000 kungaba yindlela yokuqalwa kwamazinga okushisa aphakeme kakhulu, ososayensi abaqale ukulandela emuva ekuqaleni kweminyaka yama-1900s.

Amagagasi wokushisa anjalo aqale ukuvela kaningi-kabili kaningi, futhi isibalo sawo sikhuphuke kakhulu kule minyaka eyi-100 eyedlule.

Ngokusho kwesimo sezulu, kule minyaka engama-40 ezayo, bazobe bephindwe kayikhulu. Ochwepheshe basikisela ukuthi ukushisa isikhathi eside kungasho ukwanda kwesikhathi esizayo kwemililo yamahlathi, ukusakazeka kwezifo kanye nokwanda okujwayelekile kwamazinga okushisa emhlabeni.

7. Iziphepho nezikhukhula

Ochwepheshe basebenzisa amamodeli wesimo sezulu ukuqagela imiphumela yokushisa komhlaba ngemvula. Kodwa-ke, noma ngaphandle kokufaka imodeli kuyacaca ukuthi izivunguvungu ezinamandla zaqala ukwenzeka kaningi kakhulu: eminyakeni engama-30 kuphela, inani lamandla (amazinga 4 no-5) lacishe laphindeka kabili.

Amanzi afudumele anika amandla esivunguvungwini, futhi ososayensi bagcizelela ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa olwandle nasemkhathini ngesibalo sosivunguvungu. Eminyakeni embalwa edlule, amazwe amaningi aseYurophu kanye ne-United States bahlupheka izigidigidi zamaRandi ngokulahlekelwa okuhambisana nemiphumela yeziphepho ezinamandla nezikhukhula.

Esikhathini esisuka ku-1905 kuya ku-2005, kuye kwaba nokwanda okuqhubekayo kwenani lesivunguvungu esikhulu: 1905-1930 - 3.5 izivunguvungu ngonyaka, 1931-1994 - 5.1 izivunguvungu ngonyaka, 1995-2005 - 8.4 izivunguvungu. Ngo-2005, kwaqhamuka izivunguvungu eziningi, kwathi ngonyaka we-2007 iBritish yahlaselwa yisikhukhula esinamandla kakhulu eminyakeni engama-60.

Ngenkathi ezinye izingxenye zomhlaba zithwele iziphepho ezikhuphukayo kanye namazinga olwandle akhuphukayo, ezinye izifunda zithwele kanzima ukubhekana nesomiso. Njengoba ukufudumala komhlaba kusanda, ochwepheshe balinganisela ukuthi inani lezindawo ezihlaselwe isomiso lingakhuphuka ngamaphesenti angama-66. Isomiso kuholela ekunciphiseni okusheshayo kwemithombo yamanzi kanye nokwehla kwekhwalithi yemikhiqizo yezolimo. Lokhu kubeka engcupheni ukukhiqizwa kokudla komhlaba wonke, futhi abanye abantu basengozini yokuba yindlala.

Namuhla, i-India, Pakistan, ne-Afrika engaseningizimu yeSahara isivele inokuhlangenwe nakho okufanayo, futhi ochwepheshe babikezela ukuncipha okukhulu kakhulu kokuna kwemvula emashumini eminyaka adlule. Ngakho-ke, ngokwesilinganiso, kuvela isithombe esibuhlungu kakhulu. Iphaneli kahulumeni ngokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu iphakamisa ukuthi ngonyaka ka-2020, ama-75-200 ezigidi ama-Afrika kungenzeka abe mancane amanzi, kanti umphumela wezolimo ezwenikazi uzokwehla ngo-50%.

Kuya ngokuthi uhlala kuphi, ungaba sengozini yokuthola izifo ezithile. Kodwa-ke, bekungokw nini lapho ucabanga ukuthi ungathola umkhuhlane we-dengue?

Ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa kanye nokwenyuka kwesibalo sezikhukhula nesomiso kusongela umhlaba wonke, ngoba yizo ezidala izimo ezinhle zokuzala komiyane, imikhaza kanye namagundane nezinye izidalwa ezithwala izifo ezahlukahlukene. I-World Health Organisation ibika ukuthi njengamanje, ukuqubuka kwezifo ezintsha kusanda, futhi kulawo mazwe okungakaze kuzwe kuwo ngalezi zifo. Futhi izifo ezithakazelisa kakhulu, ezifudumele zithuthela emazweni anomoya obandayo.

Yize abantu abangaphezu kuka-150,000 befa minyaka yonke ngenxa yezifo ezihlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ezinye izifo eziningi, ezisukela kwisifo senhliziyo kuya kumalaleveva, nazo ziyanda. Amacala wokuxilongwa komzimba kanye nesifuba somoya nawo ayakhula. Ngabe i-hay fever ihlangana kanjani nokushisa komhlaba? Ukushisa komhlaba kufaka isandla ekwenyukeni kwe-smog, okuphinda kugcwalise inani labantu abaphethwe i-asthma, ukhula luqale ukukhula ngamanani amakhulu, okuyinto eyingozi kubantu abaphethwe yi-allergies.

4. Imiphumela yezomnotho

Izindleko zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ziyenyuka ngokushisa. Isiphepho esinamandla nezikhukhula, kuhlanganiswa nokulahleka kwezolimo, zidala izigidi zezigidi zamaRandi. Izimo zezulu ezimbi kakhulu zidala izinkinga zemali ngokweqile. Isibonelo, ngemuva kwesivunguvungu serekhodi ngonyaka ka-2005, iLouisiana yathola ukwehla okungamaphesenti ayi-15 ngenyanga ngemuva kwesiphepho, futhi ukulimala kwezinto ezibonakalayo kulinganiselwa ku- $ 135 billion.

Izikhathi zezomnotho zihambisana cishe nazo zonke izici zezimpilo zethu. Abathengi bahlala bebhekana namanani entengo wokudla namandla akhuphukayo kanye nokwenyuka kwezindleko zezinsizakalo zezokwelapha nezindawo zokuhlala. Ohulumeni abaningi bahlupheka ukwehla kwabavakashi kanye nenzuzo yezimboni, kusuka kwesidingo esikhulayo kakhulu samandla, ukudla namanzi, kusuka ekushayisaneni komngcele nokunye okuningi.

Futhi ukungayinaki inkinga ngeke kumvumele ahambe. Ucwaningo lwakamuva olwenziwe yiGlobal Institute for Development kanye neZemvelo Institute eTufts University luveza ukuthi ukungasebenzi ebusweni bezinkinga zomhlaba kuzodala nomonakalo ongabiza u- $ 20 trillion ngonyaka ka-2100.

3. Izingxabano nezimpi

Ukwehla kobuningi kanye nekhwalithi yokudla, amanzi nomhlaba kungaba yizimbangela ezandayo zokusongela komhlaba jikelele kwezokuphepha, izingxabano, kanye nempi. Ochwepheshe bezokuphepha kuzwelonke baseMelika, behlaziya ukungqubuzana okukhona manje eSudan, baphakamisa ukuthi yize ukushisa komhlaba kungeyona imbangela yale nkinga, izimpande zayo zihlobene nemiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ikakhulukazi, ekunciphiseni kwemithombo yezemvelo etholakalayo. Ingxabano kulesi sifunda yaqubuka ngemuva kokungabikho ngokuphelele kwezulu kanye namazinga okushisa akhuphuka oLwandlekazi lwaseNdiya oluseduze.

Ososayensi kanye nabahlaziyi bezempi ngokufanayo bathi ukushintshwa kwesimo sezulu nemiphumela yaso, njengokushoda kwamanzi nokudla, kusongela umhlaba ngqo, njengoba izingxabano zemvelo nobudlova kuhlobene kakhulu. Amazwe ahlushwa ukushoda kwamanzi futhi kuvame ukulahlekelwa yizilimo abe sengozini enkulu yalolu hlobo "lwenkathazo".

Ukulahleka kwezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo

Usongo lokulahleka kwezinhlobo luyakhula kanye nokushisa komhlaba. Ngo-2050, ubungozi besintu buyehla cishe ngamaphesenti angama-30 ezinhlobo zezilwane nezitshalo uma izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile likhuphuka ngo-1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius. Ukuqothulwa okunjalo kuzokwenzeka ngenxa yokulahleka kwendawo ngenxa yokuchithwa kwamahlathi, ukuqothulwa kwamahlathi nokufudumala kwamanzi olwandle, futhi ngenxa yokungakwazi ukuzivumelanisa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okuqhubekayo.

Abaphenyi bezilwane zasendle baphawule ukuthi ezinye izinhlobo ezibuthakathaka ziye zathuthela ezigodini, enyakatho noma eningizimu ukuze "zilondoloze" indawo yazo yokuhlala. Kuyaqapheleka ukuthi abantu abavikelekile kulokhu kusongela. Ukuqothuka kanye nokwenyuka kwamazinga olwandle kusongela imvelo yabantu. Futhi lapho izitshalo nezilwane “zilahlekile” ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ukudla kwabantu, uphethroli kanye nemali engenayo nayo 'ilahlekile'.

1. Ukubhujiswa kwemvelo

Izimo zezulu ezishintshayo kanye nokwanda okubukhali kwe-carbon dioxide emkhathini kuyindlela evivinya kakhulu imvelo yethu. Lokhu kusongela ukulondolozwa kwamanzi amasha, umoya ohlanzekile, ugesi kanye nezinsizakusebenza zamandla, ukudla, umuthi kanye nezinye izinto ezibalulekile okungagcini ngokuphila kwethu kuphela, kepha ikakhulukazi iqiniso lokuthi sizophila.

Ubufakazi bukhombisa umthelela wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ezinhlelweni zomzimba nezezifo, okubonisa ukuthi ayikho ingxenye yezwe evikelekile kulo mthelela. Ososayensi sebevele bagqolozele ukufakwa nokushona kwezixhobo zamakhorali ngenxa yokufudumala kwamanzi olwandle, kanye nokufuduka kwezinhlobo ezisengozini kakhulu zezitshalo nezilwane ukuya kwezinye izindawo ezindawo ngenxa yokunyuka komoya nokushisa kwamanzi, kanye nokuncibilika kwamaqhwa.

Amamodeli asuselwa ekushiseni okuhlukahlukene akhuphuka abikezela isimo sezikhukhula elimazayo, isomiso, imililo yehlathi, i-acid acidization, kanye nokuwohloka kwendlela yokusebenza kwemvelo esebenza kahle, emhlabeni nasemanzini.

Ukubikezela kwendlala, impi nokufa kunikeza isithombe esibi ngokuphelele ngekusasa lesintu. Ososayensi benza ukubikezela okunje hhayi ukubikezela ukuphela komhlaba, kepha ukusiza abantu ukunciphisa noma ukunciphisa umthelela omubi womuntu, okuholela emiphumeleni enjalo. Uma ngamunye wethu ekuqonda ukungathi sína kwenkinga futhi ethatha izinyathelo ezifanele, sisebenzisa izinsiza ezisebenza ngokwengeziwe ezinamandla futhi ezisimeme futhi ngokujwayelekile siqhubekela endleleni yokuphila eluhlaza, ngokuqinisekile sizoba nomthelela omkhulu kwinqubo yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.

Uyini umphumela wokugcina ukushisa?

Umphumela wokugcina ukushisa, obonwa yinoma ngubani kithi. Ezindlini zokugcina izithombo zokushisa, izinga lokushisa lihlala liphakeme kunangaphandle; emotweni evaliwe ngosuku elangeni kufana into efanayo. Emhlabeni wonke, konke kuyafana. Ingxenye yokushisa kwelanga etholwa wumhlaba ingakwazi ukubuyela emkhathini, ngoba umkhathi usebenza njenge-polyethylene endaweni ebamba ukushisa. Awunawo umphumela wokugcina ukushisa komhlaba, izinga lokushisa eliphakathi nendawo yoMhlaba kufanele lizungeze--18 ° C, kodwa empeleni nge + 14 ° C. Ukushisa okungakanani okusele emhlabeni kuncike ekubunjweni komoya, okuvele kuguquke ngaphansi kwethonya lezinto ezingenhla (Yini ebangela ukufudumala komhlaba?), Okungukuthi, okuqukethwe kwamagesi abamba ukushisa, okubandakanya ukufafazwa kwamanzi (obhekele okungaphezulu kwama-60% womphumela), izinguquko isikhutha (isikhutha), i-methane (ibangela ukufudumala kakhulu) nabanye abaningana.

Izitshalo ezisebenza ngamalahle ezisebenza ngamalahle, ukuphuma kwezimoto, imishini yokushiswa kwemishini esebenza ngomshini neminye imithombo engcolisayo eyenziwe ngabantu ikhipha cishe amathoni ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-22 isikhutha negesi eminye imvelo eluhlaza emhlabeni. Imfuyo, umanyolo, ukushiswa kwamalahle neminye imithombo kukhiqiza cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingama-250 e-methane ngonyaka. Cishe isigamu sawo wonke amagesi abamba ukushisa akhutshwa ngumuntu ahlala emkhathini. Cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezine yazo zonke izinto ezikhipha igesi i-anthropogenic greenhouse kule minyaka engama-20 edlule zibangelwa ukusetshenziswa kawoyela, igesi yemvelo namalahle. Iningi lokunye kubangelwa izinguquko zomhlaba, ikakhulukazi ukugawulwa kwamahlathi.

Imaphi amaphuzu afakazela ukufudumala komhlaba?

Izimbangela zokushisa komhlaba emhlabeni

Amalahle avuthayo, i-oyili negesi, impucuko yethu iqeda isikhutha isikhathi eside kunokuba uMhlaba ungawuthola. Ngenxa yale CO₂ yakha emkhathini futhi iplanethi iyafudumala.

Into ngayinye efudumele ikhipha ukukhanya okuthile kuhlu olungabonakali ngeso elinqunu, lokhu kuyimisebe ye-infrared eshisayo. Sonke sikhazimula ngemisebe engabonakali eshisayo ngisho nasebumnyameni. Ukukhanya okuvela elangeni kwehlela phezu komhlaba, futhi uMhlaba udonsa amavolumu amakhulu alo mandla. La mandla aqeda iplanethi futhi abangele ukuthi umhlaba ukhanye ebangeni le-infrared.

Kepha i-carbon dioxide esemkhathini imunca kakhulu lo msakazo ophumayo ophuma phansi, uyibuyisele ebusweni bomhlaba. Lokhu kufudumeza iplanethi nangaphezulu - lokhu kungumphumela wokugcina ukushisa, okuholela ekushiseni komhlaba ngokweqile. I-physics elula kakhulu yokugcina ibhalansi yamandla.

Hhayi-ke, kodwa sazi kanjani ukuthi inkinga ikithi? Mhlawumbe ukwanda kwe-CO₂ okubangelwa umhlaba uqobo? Mhlawumbe amalahle no-oyela bashisiwe, kwenzeleni ngayo? Mhlawumbe konke lokhu mayelana nalezi zintaba-mlilo ezilahliwe? Impendulo ithi cha, futhi nasi isizathu.

Kanye njalo emva kweminyaka embalwa iMount Etna eSicily iba nesiphithiphithi.

Ngawo wonke ukuqhuma okukhulu, izigidi zamathani we-CO akhutshwa emkhathini.₂. Ngeza kulokhu imiphumela yokuqhuma kwemisebenzi yonke yentaba-mlilo emhlabeni, thatha inani elikhulu kakhulu elilinganiselwa kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-500 wekhabhoni yomoya oshibhile ngonyaka. Kubukeka njengokuningi, akunjalo? Kepha lokhu kungaphansi kwe-2% yamathani ayizigidi ezingama-30 e-CO.₂kulahlwa minyaka yonke ngempucuko yethu. Ukwanda kwe-carbon dioxide emkhathini kuhlangana nokukhishwa okwaziwayo okuvela ekuhlanganiseni kwamalahle, uwoyela negesi.Kusobala ukuthi isizathu sokwanda kokuhlushwa kwe-carbon dioxide emoyeni asikho kuzintaba-mlilo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukufudumala okubonakalayo kuhambisana nokubikezela okusekelwe ekunyuseni okubhaliwe kwe-carbon dioxide.

Amathani ayizinkulungwane ezingama-30 wekhabhoni dayoksayidi ngonyaka, ingabe maningi? Uma uyicindezela isesimweni esiqinile, khona-ke ivolumu izolingana nawo wonke "amadwala amhlophe eDover" nenani elinjalo le-CO₂ sikhipha emkhathini njalo ngonyaka. Ngeshwa kithina, ukungaphezulu kokuqala kwempucuko yethu akuyona into ethile, okungukuthi i-carbon dioxide.

Ubufakazi bokuthi iplanethi iyafudumeza yonke indawo. Okokuqala, bheka ama-thermometers. Iziteshi zesimo sezulu ziqopha idatha yokushisa kusuka kumashumi ayisishiyagalombili sekhulu le-19. Ososayensi beNASA basebenzise le datha ukuhlanganisa imephu ekhombisa ushintsho kumazinga okushisa aphansi emhlabeni jikelele ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Umthelela omkhulu ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu manje, obangelwa ukushiswa kwamalahle okugcwala, ukukhuphuka kokugcotshwa kwekhabhoni dayokhethi ephethe ukushisa kwelanga okuthe xaxa. La mandla angeziwe kufanele aye ndawo thile. Ingxenye yayo iqala ukushisa umoya, futhi iningi layo lisolwandle bese kuba yilapho lifudumala khona.

Ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa eliseduze kobuso bolwandle ngenxa yokushisa komhlaba kuthinta ukukhula kwe-phytoplankton, kunciphisa inani lezakhi zomzimba kusuka ekujuleni kolwandle okupholile kuya ezingqimbeni ezingaphezulu komhlaba. Ukwehla kobuningi be-phytoplankton kusho ukwehla kwamandla olwandle okumunca isikhutha kanye nokusheshisa okwengeziwe kokushisa komhlaba, okuthe, futhi, kuzosheshisa ukulimala kohlelo lwezemvelo yasolwandle.

Ngokusobala kakhulu, ukufudumala kubonakala e-Arctic Ocean nasezindaweni ezizungezile. Ngenxa yokushisa kwezilwandle, siphelelwa yiqhwa ehlobo ezindaweni lapho cishe kungangeni muntu. I-Ice ingukukhanya kwendalo okulula kakhulu emhlabeni, futhi izinkanyezi zolwandle ziba mnyama kakhulu. U-Ice ukhombisa lesi sigameko sibuyisele emkhathini, amanzi athatha ukukhanya kwelanga bese eshisa. Okuholela ekuncibilikeni kweqhwa elisha. Yikhiphela obala kakhulu ulwandle, lubambe ukukhanya okungaphezulu - lokhu kubizwa ngokuthi impendulo enhle.

ECape Drew Point, e-Alaska, ugu lwe-Arctic Ocean, eminyakeni engama-50 eyedlule, ugu lolwandle lwalungaphezu kwekhilomitha nengxenye olwandle. Ugu lwalunqamuka ngesivinini esingamamitha ayi-6 ngonyaka. Manje lelijubane lingamamitha ayi-15 ngonyaka. I-Arctic Ocean isifudumeza ngokuqhubekayo. Esikhathini esiningi sonyaka akukho-qhwa kuwo, lokhu kwenza ukuthi ugu lungasengozini kakhulu yokuguguleka ngenxa yezivunguvungu, eziba namandla ngokwengeziwe isikhathi ngasinye.

Izifunda ezisenyakatho ye-Alaska, iSiberia, neCanada zivame kakhulu ukwenzeka njalo. Eminyakeni engu-1000 inhlabathi ibikhona eqandisiwe unyaka nonyaka. Uqukethe izinto eziningi eziphilayo - amaqabunga amadala, izimpande zezitshalo ezakhula lapho ngaphambi kokuqandiswa yiqhwa. Ngenxa yokuthi izifunda ze-Arctic zishiswa ngokushesha kunabanye, i-permafrost iyancibilika, nokuqukethwe kwayo kuqale ukubola.

Ukuqunjelwa kwe-permafrost kuholela ekukhulisweni kwe-carbon dioxide ne-methane emkhathini, igesi enamandla okuluhlaza ngokuqinile. Lokhu kuthuthukisa futhi ukufudumala komhlaba - isibonelo esisha sokuphendula okuhle. I-Permafrost iqukethe ikhabhoni eyanele yokukhulisa i-CO₂ ngaphezulu kokuphindwe kabili emkhathini. Ngejubane lamanje, ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kungakhipha lonke leli khabhoni diokshini ngasekupheleni kwaleli khulu leminyaka.

Kuyini ukufudumala komhlaba?

Ukushisa kakhulu komhlaba - Lokhu kukhuphuka kancane kancane futhi okuhamba kancane kokushisa okujwayelekile konyaka. Ososayensi bahlonze izimbangela eziningi zalokhu kubulawa ngamathambo. Isibonelo, ukuqhuma kwentaba-mlilo, ukwanda kokusebenza kwonozungezilanga, izivunguvungu, izivunguvungu, tsunamis, kanye nokwenziwa ngabantu kungabonakala lapha. Umqondo wokuba necala lomuntu usekelwa iningi lososayensi.

Izindlela Zokubikezela Zomhlaba Ezifudumele

Ukushisa komhlaba kanye nokuthuthuka kwayo kubikezelwa ikakhulukazi kusetshenziswa amamodeli wekhompyutha, asuselwa kwidatha eqoqwe ekushiseni, ekushayweni kwekhabhoni diabolayin nokunye okuningi. Kuliqiniso, ukunemba kokuqagela okunjalo kushiya ukufiseleka kakhulu futhi, njengomthetho, kungeqi i-50%; ngaphezu kwalokho, lapho abanye ososayensi beqhubeka, kuzokwenzeka okungatheni ukuthengiswa kwesibikezelo kube.

Futhi, ukujula okujulile okujulile kweqhwa kusetshenziselwa ukuthola idatha, kwesinye isikhathi amasampula athathwa ekujuleni okufika kumamitha ayi-3000. Leli qhwa lasendulo ligcina imininingwane ngokushisa, imisebenzi yelanga, kanye namandla kazibuthe womhlaba ngaleso sikhathi. Imininingwane isetshenziselwa ukuqhathanisa nezinkomba zamanje.

Iyini imiphumela yokushisa komhlaba jikelele?

Yini ubungozi bekhabhoni dioxide ekujuleni okuphezulu emoyeni futhi yini ebangela ukufudumala komhlaba? Ikusasa elinjalo libikezelwe isikhathi eside manje nokuthi kuzoba njani ngo-2100.

Uma kungekho zenzo zokunciphisa imiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ngezindlela nangejubane lomsebenzi wezomnotho ofana nanamuhla, sizophila emhlabeni onamandla amakhulu ngokususelwa ekusetshenzisweni kwamafutha asezindlekeni akhula kancane futhi abizayo. Ubuntu buzohlangabezana nezinselelo ezinkulu ekuvikelekeni kwamandla. Ukumbozwa kwamahlathi ezindaweni ezishisayo kuzothathelwa indawo yindawo yezolimo neyamadlelo cishe yonke indawo. Ekupheleni kwalelikhulu lama-21, izinga lokushisa lomhlaba selizofinyelela ≈ 5 ° C liphakeme kunangaphambili kwenguquko yezimboni.

Umehluko wezimo zemvelo uzokhula kakhulu. Umhlaba uzoshintsha ngokuphelele ngoxhaxha lwasemoyeni lwasemoyeni olwe-900 ppm. Ukuguqulwa okubanzi kwemvelo yemvelo kuzokwenzeka, kaningi kulimaze imisebenzi yabantu. Izindleko zokuvumelana nezimo ezintsha zizodlula kakhulu izindleko zokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.

Izimbangela Zokushisa Komhlaba

Abantu abaningi sebazi ukuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kungenye yezinkinga ezinkulu namuhla. Kuhle ukubheka ukuthi kunezinto ezinjalo ezenza kusebenze futhi kusheshiswe le nqubo. Okokuqala, umphumela ongemuhle udonswa wukukhuphuka kokukhishwa kwe-carbon dioxide, i-nitrogen, i-methane namanye amagesi ayingozi emoyeni. Lokhu kwenzeka ngenxa yemisebenzi yamabhizinisi wezimboni, ukusebenza kwezimoto, kepha umthelela omkhulu kakhulu kwezemvelo wenzeka ngesikhathi senhlekelele yemvelo: izingozi zezimboni, imililo, ukuqhuma kanye nokuvuza kwegesi.

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Ukusheshisa kokushisa komhlaba kusenziwa ukukhishwa komusi ngenxa yokushisa komoya okuphezulu. Ngenxa yalokhu, amanzi emifula, olwandle nezilwandle asebenza ngokushwibeka. Uma ngabe le nqubo iya ngokuqina, khona-ke iminyaka engamakhulu amathathu, izilwandle zingasuswa nje impela.

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Njengoba imithambeka yeqhwa inyibilika ngenxa yokushisa komhlaba, lokhu kunomthelela ekwandeni kwamazinga amanzi olwandle. Ngokuzayo, likhukhula ugu lwezwekazi kanye neziqhingi, futhi kungaholela ezikhukhulini nasekubhujisweni kwezindawo zokuhlala. Ngesikhathi sokuncibilika kweqhwa, kuphuma nogesi we-methane, olungcolisa kakhulu umkhathi.

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Iziphi izinyathelo ezithathwayo ukumisa ukufudumala komhlaba?

Ukuvumelana okubanzi phakathi kososayensi bezulu mayelana nokwanda okuqhubekayo kwamazinga okushisa komhlaba kuye kwaholela amazwe, izinhlangano, nabantu ukuzama ukuvimba ukufudumala komhlaba noma ukuzivumelanisa nakho. Izinhlangano eziningi zemvelo zivumela ukuthi kuthathwe isinyathelo ngokulwa nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, ikakhulukazi ngabathengi, kepha futhi nasemazingeni kamasipala, wesifunda kanye nohulumeni. Abanye futhi bathembela ekunciphiseni ukukhiqizwa komhlaba jikelele kwamafutha okugcwala komhlaba, becacisa ukuxhumeka okuqondile phakathi kokuvutha komoya kanye nokuphuma kwe-CO2.

Namuhla, i-Kyoto Protocol (kwavunyelwana ngayo ngo-1997, yaqala ukusebenza ngo-2005), okungeziwe kwi-UN Uhlaka Lwesivumelwano Sokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu, yisivumelwano esikhulu somhlaba wonke sokulwa nokushisa komhlaba. Isivumelwano lesi sifaka amazwe angaphezu kwe-160 futhi sihlanganisa cishe ama-55% wokukhishwa komoya komoya okuphehla umhlaba.

I-European Union kufanele inciphise ukuphuma kwe-CO2 namanye amagesi abamba ukushisa ngo-8%, i-United States - ngo-7%, Japan - ngo-6%. Ngakho-ke, kucatshangwa ukuthi inhloso esemqoka - yokunciphisa ukuphuma kwegesi ngokushisa ngama-5% eminyakeni eyi-15 ezayo - izofezeka. Kodwa lokhu ngeke kumise ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke, kepha kwehlise kuphela ukukhula kwayo kancane. Futhi lokhu kungcono kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, singaphetha ngokuthi izinyathelo ezingathí sina zokuvimbela ukufudumala komhlaba azibhekwanga futhi azithathwa.

Izici zokushisa komhlaba

Kunezici ezinjalo, izehlakalo zemvelo nemisebenzi yabantu enomthelela ekunciphiseni ukufudumala komhlaba. Okokuqala, imisinga yolwandle iyasiza kulokhu. Isibonelo, i-Gulf Stream yehlisa ijubane. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehla kwamazinga okushisa e-Arctic kusanda kuqashelwa. Engqungqutheleni ezahlukahlukene, kuphakama izinkinga zokushisa komhlaba kanye nezinhlelo zibekwa phambili okufanele zixhumanise imisebenzi yemikhakha eyahlukene yomnotho. Lokhu kunciphisa ukuphuma kwamagesi abamba ukushisa kanye nezinto eziyingozi emoyeni. Ngenxa yalokho, umphumela wegreenhouse uyancipha, ungqimba lwe-ozone luyavuselelwa, futhi ukufudumala komhlaba kuyancipha.

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Imiphumela elwandle

Amanzi e-Arctic angakhululeka ngokuphelele eqhweni ehlobo ngo-2050. Izinga lolwandle lizokhuphuka ngamamitha ayi-0.5-0.8 futhi lizoqhubeka nokukhuphuka ngemuva kuka-2100. Izindawo eziningi nezingqalasizinda ezisogwini emhlabeni wonke zizoba sengozini yokubhujiswa. Kuzoba nokukhula okukhulu kwezimo zezimo ezeqisayo endaweni esegwini (tsunamis, izivunguvungu kanye namagagasi ahambisana nakho kuzodala umonakalo).

Kuzoba nokufa okubanzi kwezixhobo zamakhorali ngenxa yokugcwala komoya nokushisa komoya olwandle, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle nokukhula okukhulu kwezivunguvungu zomhlaba nemvula. Izinguquko kwezokudoba nazo azikwazi ukubikezela.

Imiphumela yokushisa komhlaba

Inani elikhulu lemvula lilindelekile, kuyilapho ezifundeni eziningi zeplanethi kuzoba nesomiso, isikhathi sezulu esishisa kakhulu sizokonyuka, inani lezinsuku zaseqhwa lizokwehla, inani lesivunguvungu kanye nezikhukhula lizokwanda. Ngenxa yesomiso, inani lemithombo yamanzi lizokuwa, umkhiqizo wezolimo uzokwehla. Kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi isibalo semililo yehlathi nokushiswa kwama-peat bogs kukhuphuke. Ukuqina kwenhlabathi kuzokhuphuka kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba, ukuguguleka kwasogwini kuyokwanda, nendawo yeqhwa izoncipha.

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Imiphumela yangempela ayimnandi kakhulu. Kepha umlando uyazi izibonelo eziningi lapho impilo inqoba. Khumbula okungenani i-Ice Age. Abanye ososayensi bakholelwa ukuthi ukushisa komhlaba akusona inhlekelele yomhlaba, kepha isikhathi sezinguquko zesimo sezulu kule planethi yethu ezenzeka eMhlabeni kuwo wonke umlando waso. Abantu sebevele benza imizamo yokuthi ngandlela thile bathuthukise isimo somhlaba wethu. Futhi uma senza umhlaba ube ngcono futhi uhlanzekile, futhi hhayi okuphambene nalokho, njengoba senzile ngaphambili, khona-ke kukhona lonke ithuba lokusinda ekushiseni komhlaba ngokulahlekelwa okuncane.

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Imiphumela emhlabeni

Izindawo zokuhanjiswa kwe-Permafrost zizokwehla ngokungaphezulu kwe-2/3, okuzoholela ekukhipheni komkhathi okulingana nokukhishwa kwekhabhoni dioksi kuwo wonke umlando wokuqothulwa kwamahlathi. Izinhlobo eziningi zezitshalo ngeke zikwazi ukuzivumelanisa ngokushesha nezimo zezulu ezintsha. Ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa kuzothinta kabi isivuno sikakolweni, ilayisi kanye nommbila ezindaweni ezishisayo nezibandayo. Ngenxa yalokhu, kuzoba nokuqothulwa kwezinhlobo zezinhlobo. Yonke indawo lapho ukudla kuzobe kunqabile kubantu, indlala iyoba enye yezinkinga ezinkulu zempucuko yabantu.

Imiphumela emkhathini

Ukwanda nobude bezikhathi zezinsuku ezishisayo ezingejwayelekile kuzodlula kabili uma kuqhathaniswa nanamuhla. Izifunda zasenyakatho ezibandayo nezinomswakama zizoba manzi impela, futhi izifunda ezinesimo sezulu esomile nesiwugwadule siba nesomiso kakhulu. Ukuhanjiswa ngokweqile kwezulu kuzoba okukhulu futhi kuvame kakhulu ezindaweni ezishisayo nezishisayo. Kuzoba nokwanda kwemvula emhlabeni wonke, futhi indawo yezikhukhula yonyaka izonyuka ngezikhathi eziyi-14.

Imiphumela yabantu

Kulinganiselwa ukuphepha kwe-CO okuphephile₂ komuntu ku-426 ppm uzotholakala eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo. Ukukhula okulinganiselwa ku-900 ppm emkhathini ngo-2100 kuzoba nomthelela omubi kakhulu kubantu. Ukwehla njalo nokukhathala, umuzwa wokugcwala, ukulahlekelwa ukunakwa, ukwanda kwezifo zesifuba somoya kuyingxenye encane yokuphazamiseka esizizwa ngathi. Izinguquko ezihlala zikhona emazingeni okushisa nakwezimo zezulu ngeke zenze umzimba womuntu uzuze. Ukukhiqizwa kwabasebenzi kuzokwehla. Ubungozi bokubhubhisa kanye nobuhlungu bukhula kakhulu emadolobheni amakhulu.

Izindlela zokubhekana nokushisa komhlaba jikelele

Ngeke sikwazi ukuxazulula inkinga yokufudumala komhlaba ngokuguqula kakhulu isimo sethu sengqondo ekusebenziseni izinzuzo zempucuko kulesi sigaba sesikhathi. Kunezinto eziningi kakhulu ezisixhumanisa nokukhiqiza kanye nomkhakha. Futhi-ke, yimithombo eyinhloko ye-carbon dioxide.

Kepha ukuhamba kule ndlela kubalulekile futhi kudingekile, uma sishiya konke njengoba kunje, yiliphi ikusasa elizonikezwa abazukulu nabazukulu bethu?

Kukhona izixazululo ezine okwamanje:

1. Sesha eminye imithombo yamandla.
2. Ukuncishiswa kokukhipha kwe-CO₂ukwenza ngcono ukukhiqizwa nokuthuthwa okukhona.
3. Ukutshala izihlahla.
4. Ukukhethwa kwekhabhoni dayibheli kusuka emkhathini nokujovwa ezingxenyeni ezingaphansi komhlaba.

Amandla elanga, umoya, ama-ebbs nokugeleza, amandla atholakalayo wamathumbu oMhlaba ayimithombo emihle yamandla yemvelo.

Ukuwasebenzisa, ungathola amandla kagesi ngaphandle kokushisa amalahle kanye negesi. Izimpahla ezikhiqizwa yizimboni kufanele zidluliselwe ngokwahlukanisa amakhemikhali - izitshalo zokwelapha i-flue i-carbon dioxide. Kungakuhle ukushintshanisa izimoto nezimoto zikagesi ukuze ubalekele izinjini zokuhlanganisa ezingaphakathi. Ngokuvamile ukugawulwa kwamahlathi kwenzeka ngaphandle kokutshala izihlahla ezintsha kulezi zindawo. Isinyathelo esidingekayo ekugcinweni nasekukhuleni kwamahlathi singabhekwa njengokwakhiwa kwenhlangano yomhlaba wonke yokutshala imifino emhlabeni, eqaphe amahlathi.

Ihlonipha izakhiwo zokugcina ukushisa ze-CO₂, uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amagesi, umthelela wayo wesikhathi eside esimweni sezulu. Leli thonya, ngemuva kokuqedwa kokuphuma kwalo okubangele, lihlala njalo lifinyelela eminyakeni eyinkulungwane. Ngakho-ke, kubalulekile, esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, ukusungula ukufakwa kweziteshi zokujova kwekhabhoni dioksijini kusuka emkhathini kuya emathunjini omhlaba.

Isiphetho

Ngeshwa, yingxenye encane kuphela yamazwe nohulumeni babo abaqonda usongo lwangempela, oluyinhlekelele olwenzeka emhlabeni wethu. Izinkampani zamazwe omhlaba, ezinemboni yazo yamandla futhi ziphila ngokuthengisa kuka-oyela, igesi namalahle, ngeke zikhulise ukusebenza kwazo futhi zishe. Zonke lezi zimo azisiniki ithemba lekusasa eliqhakazile. Umuntu - umqhele wokudalwa kwendalo, uba umchithi wawo, kepha izwi lokugcina kulokhu kuxabana lizohlala nonina - imvelo ...

4. Imiphumela yezomnotho

Ngokwezomnotho, futhi, yonke into ayingcono kunakwezinye.

Ngenxa yomonakalo odalwe amakhethini, iziphepho, isomiso nezikhukhula, amazwe emhlabeni jikelele kufanele asebenzise imali enkulu.

Ngokusho kwesimo sezulu, ngo-2100 ukulimala kwezinhlekelele zemvelo kuzofinyelela ku- $ 20 trillion.

3. Izingxabano nezimpi

Izimpi eziningi emlandweni wesintu zenzekile, ngoba umuntu akazange ahlanganyele okuthile.

Maduze, ngenxa yesomiso nezinye izinkinga zemvelo, emazweni angaphansi kwenhlupheko yamanzi nezinsizakusebenza zezolimo, ukushiya, ama-skirmish kuzoqala, bese konke lokhu kuzoholela ezingxabanweni, bese kuba yimpi.

Ukulahleka kwezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo

Ngicabanga ukuthi kuba sobala, ngokusekelwe kumaphuzu wangaphambilini, ukuthi ngezinkinga ezinjalo zemvelo, ukuntuleka komswakama, noma okuphambene nesomiso, izinhlobo zezilwane zizoqala ukunyamalala.

Zonke izindawo zokuhlala zezinto ezahlukahlukene zizoshintsha kakhulu, nezilwane, izinambuzane, izinyoni, ngokuvamile, zonke izinto eziphilayo, ngeke zikwazi ukuzivumelanisa ngokushesha nezinguquko, izinguquko ezilimazayo.

1. Ukubhujiswa kwemvelo

I-Carbon dioxide emkhathini iyanda, izimo zezulu ziyaguquka. Lezi zivivinyo ezibucayi zemvelo yethu.

Amacala amaningi asevele aqapheleka lapho izilwane zifudukela kwezinye izindawo lapho zishintshwa khona, ngenxa yokuncibilika kwamaqhwa, isomiso, zigijimela kwezinye izindawo.

Ukugoqa amakhorali ngenxa yokufudumala olwandle.

Singazilahla. Izinto ezibeka amarekhodi, izakhiwo zemvelo ezisohlwini lweGuinness Book of Record, zizoqala ukushabalala.

Izinhlobo zezilwane nezitshalo, nazo.

Izinhlinzeko ezisemqoka zedokhumenti

Injongo eyinhloko yesivumelwano esisha, eyaqinisekiswa yiwo wonke amazwe angamalungu, ukuthola ukufinyela okukhulu kokukhishwa komoya ophefumulayo bese ngale ndlela kugcina izinga lokushisa eliphakathi kweplanethi lisuka ku-1.5-2 ° C.

Njengamanje, imizamo yomphakathi womhlaba akwanele ukunqanda ukufudumala, kusho lo mbhalo. Ngakho-ke, izinga lokukhishwa okuphelele okuyingozi lifinyelela ezingeni lama-gigaton angama-55 ngo-2030, kuyilapho, ngokusho kochwepheshe be-UN, lolu phawu oluphezulu kufanele lungabi ngaphezu kwama-gigaton angama-40. "Kulokhu, amazwe abamba iqhaza Esivumelwaneni SaseParis adinga ukuthatha izinyathelo ezinqala," kugcizelela lo mbhalo.

Isivumelwano ngesokwakheka kohlaka, izinhlaka zayo azisazukunquma inani lokukhishwa kwegesi lokushisa komhlaba, izindlela zokunqanda ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kanye nemithetho yokusetshenziswa kwalombhalo. Kepha amaphuzu asemqoka sekuvunyelwene ngawo.

Amaqembu esivumelwano asenza:

• zamukele izinhlelo zikazwelonke zokwehlisa ukuphuma kwomoya, imishini yokuphinda itheknoloji kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, lezi zibopho zombuso kufanele zibuyekezwe ngaphezulu njalo ngeminyaka emihlanu,

• sinciphise i-CO2 emkhathini ohlelweni, ngoba, ngo-2020, kuyadingeka ukuthi kuthuthukiswe amasu kazwelonke wokuguqukela emnothweni ongenakhabhoni,

• njalo ngonyaka sabela ama- $ 100 bhiliyoni eGreen Climate Fund ukusiza amazwe athuthuke futhi asengozini enkulu. Ngemuva kuka-2025, le mali kufanele ibuyekezwe ngaphezulu "icubungula izidingo nezinto eziza kuqala emazweni athuthukayo,"

• Ukusungula ukushintshaniswa kobuchwepheshe be- "green" emkhakheni wokusebenza kwamandla, izimboni, ezokwakha, ezolimo, njll.

UMongameli wase-US uBarack Obama

Isivumelwano sibonisa ukuncishiswa kokungcoliswa kwekhabhoni okusongela umhlaba wethu, kanye nokwakha amathuba emisebenzi kanye nokukhula komnotho ngokutshalwa kwemali kubuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphansi lekhabhoni. Lokhu kuzosiza ukubambezeleka noma ukugwema eminye imiphumela emibi kakhulu yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.

UMongameli wase-US uBarack Obama

Ekupheleni kwengqungquthela, amazwe ayi-189 afaka amasu okuqala wokwehlisa ukuphuma kwegesi abamba ukushisa. Amazwe amahlanu abika ukukhishwa okukhulu kunikeze lezi zibalo ezilandelayo zokunciphisa kwabo okufika ku-1990:

Ngokusemthethweni, amazwe kufanele azwakalise ukuzibophezela kwawo ukunciphisa ukhipha igesi komoya ngosuku olusayinwe lo mbhalo. Isimo esibaluleke kakhulu ukuthi akumele abe ngaphansi kunezinjongo esezishiwo eParis.

Ukubheka ukuqaliswa kokusebenza kwesivumelwano seParis kanye nokuzibophezela okwenziwe ngamazwe, kuhlongozwa ukuthi kwakhiwe iqembu elisebenza ngezikhangiso. Kuhlelwe ukuthi izoqala ukusebenza ngonyaka we-2016.

Ukungavumelani nezixazululo

"Kumele" kwathathelwa indawo ngu "kufanele"

Esigabeni sokudingida lesi sivumelwano, iRussia yavuma ukuthi isivumelwano kufanele sibophezelwe ngokomthetho kuwo wonke amazwe. I-USA iphikisana nalokhu. Ngokusho kukazwilakhe ongashiwongo ngegama ocashunwe yi-Associated Press, ithimba laseMelika lagcizelela ukuthi igama elithi "kufanele" kumele lithathelwe indawo ngokuthi "kufanele" embhalweni wokugcina wezinkomba zokunciphisa ukungcoliswa komoya.

Lesi sakhiwo sesivumelwano sigwema ukuqinisekiswa kwemibhalo ku-US Congress, engabaza kakhulu inqubomgomo yezemvelo ka-Obama.

Azikho izibopho ezithile

Okunye ukuphakanyiswa kweRussian Federation kwakuwukwabelana ngemfanelo yokukhishwa kwemali phakathi kwamazwe wonke. Kodwa-ke, amazwe asathuthuka aphikisana nalokhu. Ngokombono wabo, iningi lomthwalo kufanele liwele emazweni athuthukile, obekuyisikhathi eside iyimithombo eyinhloko yokuphuma. Ngaleso sikhathi, iChina neNdiya, ezithathwa njengamazwe asathuthuka, manje sezisendaweni eyisihlanu "engcolisayo" yeplanethi, kanye ne-US kanye ne-EU. I-Russia isendaweni yesihlanu ngokuya ngemikhiqizo ye-CO2.

Njengoba isazi semvelo semvelo saseFrance, uNicolas Hulot esishilo, phakathi nengqungquthela, amanye amazwe anjengeSaudi Arabia, "enze konke okusemandleni ukwenza buthaka isivumelwano ngangokunokwenzeka futhi asuse kulo ulimi olungamukeleki mayelana nokuncishiswa koshintsho nokuya emithonjeni emisha emisha esikhundleni sama-hydrocarbons asendulo."

Njengomphumela, umbhalo wale dokhumenti awunazo izibopho ezithile zezifundazwe zokunciphisa ukuphuma kwegesi yomoya obamba ukushisa: kucatshangwa ukuthi izwe ngalinye lizonquma inqubomgomo yalo ngokuzimela kule ndawo.

Le ndlela ingenxa yokuthi phakathi kwamazwe abambe iqhaza engqungqutheleni kukhona izifundazwe ezinamakhono ahlukene, okungabavumeli ukuthi bethule izidingo ezifanayo.

I-US "ngeke ikhokhele konke"

Elinye iphuzu lapho amazwe angakwazanga ukufinyelela esivumelwaneni isikhathi eside kwakuyindaba yezimali. Ngaphandle kwesinqumo sokuqhubeka nokwaba imali kwi-Green Fund, isivumelwano seParis asinazo izindlela ezichaziwe zokusatshalaliswa kwemali nezibopho zamazwe athuthukile.

Ekuqaleni kwengqungquthela, uMongameli Barack Obama uvumile ukuthi i-United States, njengenye “yezingcolisi” ezinkulu zomhlaba, kufanele ibe nesibopho sokuvikela imvelo ezizukulwaneni ezizayo. Kodwa-ke, eceleni komhlangano, amalungu eqembu laseMelika akwenza kwacaca ukuthi "ngeke bakhokhele konke" futhi babheke ukusekelwa okusebenzayo kwezezimali kwamanye amazwe, njengezimali ezicebile zamafutha ePersian Gulf.

Umbukiso owandulela ingqungquthela yesimo sezulu, eParis, eFrance, ngo-2015

Umehluko phakathi kwesivumelwano saseParis ne-Kyoto Protocol

• Izibopho zokwehlisa ukuphuma kwegesi eshisa ngokuthathwa kwemvelo azithathwa nje kuphela ngamazwe athuthukile kanye namazwe anomnotho oseshintshashintshweni, kepha zonke izifundazwe, kungakhathalekile ukuthi zingakanani ukukhula kwezomnotho.

• Idokhumenti ayinazo izibopho ezithile zokunciphisa noma ukukhawula ukukhishwa kwe-CO2. I-Kyoto Protocol ihlinzekele ukwehla kwabo ngo-5.2% ngonyaka we-2008 kuya ku -22 uma kuqhathaniswa ne-1990 level.

• Kwakhiwa ithuluzi elisha lomnotho lomhlaba jikelele lentuthuko esimeme, kuthathelwa indawo izindlela ze-Kyoto Protocol (lapho, ikakhulukazi, ukuhweba ngezilinganiso zokukhishwa kwegesi CO2).

• Isivumelwano esisha sinendatshana ekhethekile ebekelwe ukunakekela ikhono lawo wonke amahlathi asemhlabeni, hhayi lawo asendaweni ezishisayo kuphela, ukumunca i-CO2.

• Ngokuphikisana ne-Kyoto Protocol, Isivumelwano SaseParis asicacisi indlela yokuqapha ngokuqinile izindlela zokuhambisana kwayo nezinyathelo zokuyisebenzisa. Lo mbhalo unikeza kuphela ikhomishini yezingcweti zamazwe omhlaba ilungelo lokuqinisekisa imininingwane enikezwe amazwe ngamathuzu abo ekunciphiseni ukuphuma kwe-CO2. Udaba lokuqina kwezomthetho kwalombhalo luyimpikiswano phakathi kwabameli. Kodwa-ke, ngokusho kuka-Alexander Bedritsky, Ummeli Oyisipesheli kaMongameli Wezimo Zesimo Sezulu, Isivumelwano saseParis "sinombono: hhayi wokuqhuba, kepha ukukhuthaza ukubamba iqhaza nokwakha izimo ukuze amazwe angabi nesifiso sokungavumeli idokhumenti noma aphume kuyo."

Imiphumela Yengqungquthela YaseRussia

Ngisho nasekuvuleni kwengqungquthela, uMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin uthe ngonyaka ka-2030 iRussia ihlose ukunciphisa ukukhishwa okulimazayo kuye kuma-70% ukusuka esigabeni sika-1990. U-Putin wachaza ukuthi ukufeza imiphumela kuyadingeka ngenxa yezisombululo eziphumelelayo emkhakheni wokongiwa kwamandla, kufaka phakathi ama-nanotechnologies amasha. Ngakho-ke, ubuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe bezengezo obususelwa kuma-carbon nanotubes eRussia kuphela buzonciphisa ukuphuma kwe-carbon dioxide ngo-2030 ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-160-180, kusho umongameli.

KwakunguPutin owaphakamisa ukuthi kubhekwe iqhaza lamahlathi njengokucwilisa okukhulu kwamagesi abamba ukushisa esivumelwaneni saseParis, okubaluleke kakhulu eRussia, enezinsiza ezinkulu zamahlathi.

Ekupheleni kwengqungquthela, uNgqongqoshe Wezemvelo Nezomnotho weRussian Federation uSergey Donskoy uthe maduze nje uhlangothi lwaseRussia luzoqala umsebenzi wokujoyina lesi sivumelwano ngokwakha umthetho ofanele wenhlangano.

UDonskoy wengeze ukuthi ngonyaka ka-2035 kuhlelwa ukukhuphula ama- $ 53 ezigidigidi ukuze kuthuthukiswe imithombo yamandla evuselelekayo.

Ngokusho kochwepheshe, inani eliphelele lemithombo ehlukile lilinganiselwa kumathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu kawoyela alinganayo ngonyaka. "Maduze nje, kuzothunyelwa amakhaza angaphezu kuka-1.5 GW esizukulwaneni sombuso eRussia," kusho uDonskoy.

Amanani namaqiniso okushisa komhlaba

Enye yezinqubo ezabonakala kakhulu ezihambisana nokushisa komhlaba wukuncibilika kwamaqhwa.

Eminyakeni eyikhulu edlule, amazinga okushisa eningizimu-ntshonalanga ye-Antarctica, eNhlonhlo ye-Antarctic, akhule ngo-2,5 ° C. Ngo-2002, iqhwa elinendawo engaphezulu kwamakhilomitha angama-2500 laqhekeka eshalofini leqhwa laseLarsen elinendawo engamakhilomitha angama-3250 nobukhulu obungaphezu kwamamitha angama-200, elisentabeni yeNhlonhlo ye-Antarctic, okusho ukuthi empeleni kubhujiswa iqhwa. Yonke inqubo yokubhujiswa yathatha izinsuku ezingama-35 kuphela. Ngaphambi kwalokhu, iqhwa lahlala lizinzile iminyaka eyizinkulungwane eziyi-10, kusukela ekugcineni kwenkathi yeqhwa yokugcina. Eminyakeni eyizinkulungwane edlule, ubukhulu be-glacier bancipha kancane kancane, kodwa engxenyeni yesibili yekhulu lama-20, izinga lokuncibilika kwalo lakhuphuka kakhulu. Ukuncibilika kweqhwa kuholele ekutheni kudedelwe inqwaba yama-icebergs (angaphezu kwenkulungwane) olwandle lweWeddell.

Amanye amaqhwa ayabhujiswa. Ngakho-ke, ehlobo lika-2007, iqhwa elingamakhilomitha angama-200 ubude namakhilomitha angama-30 ububanzi laphuka eRoss Ice Shelf, ngaphambili kancane, entwasahlobo yango-2007, insimu yeqhwa ibanga elingama-270 km ubude nama-40 km ububanzi ehlukana nezwekazi lase-Antarctic. Ukuqongelelwa kwama-icebergs kuthintela ukuphuma kwamanzi abandayo ukusuka kuLwandle lweRoss, okuholela ekuphazamisweni kokulingana kwemvelo (omunye wemiphumela, ngokwesibonelo, ngukufa kwamaphengwini aphelelwa amandla okuthola imithombo yawo yokudla ejwayelekile ngoba iqhwa kuLwandle lweRoss lwahlala isikhathi eside kunokujwayelekile).

Ukusheshiswa kokucekelwa phansi kwe-permafrost kuye kwaphawulwa.

Kusukela ekuqaleni kweminyaka yo-1970, izinga lokushisa lezinhlabathi ze-permafrost e-Western Siberia lenyuke ngo-1.0 ° C, enkabeni yeYakutia - ngo-1-1.5 ° C. Enyakatho ye-Alaska, kusukela maphakathi no-1980s, izinga lokushisa elingaphezulu kwamatshe aqandisiwe landa nge-3 ° C.

Ukushisa komhlaba kuzoba namuphi umthelela emhlabeni ongaphandle?

Kuzothinta kakhulu impilo yezilwane ezithile. Isibonelo, amabhere asemakhaza, uphawu kanye namaphengwini azophoqeleka ukuthi aguqule izindawo ahlala kuzo, njengoba ezamanje zizoncibilika. Izinhlobo eziningi zezilwane nezitshalo zingamane zinyamalale ngaphandle kokujwayela indlela yokuphila esishintsha ngokushesha. Shintsha isimo sezulu emhlabeni jikelele. Izinhlekelele zesimo sezulu kulindeleke ukuthi zande, kuzoba nezikhathi ezinde zesimo sezulu esishisa kakhulu, kuzoba nemvula eningi, kepha lokhu kuzonyusa amathuba esomiso ezifundeni eziningi, kwandise isibalo sezikhukhula ngenxa yesiphepho kanye nokwenyuka kwezinga lolwandle. Kepha konke kuncike esifundeni esithile.

Umbiko weqembu elisebenzayo lekhomishini ehlangene yohulumeni ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu (iShanghai, 2001) uveza izinhlobo eziyisikhombisa zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ngekhulu lama-21. Iziphetho ezinkulu ezenziwa kulo mbiko ukuqhubeka kokushisa komhlaba, okuhambisana nokwanda kokuphuma komoya komoya obamba ukushisa (yize, ngokwezimo ezithile ezithile, ukukhipha igesi yomoya obamba ukushisa kungancipha ngasekupheleni kwalelikhulu leminyaka ngenxa yokuvinjelwa kokukhishwa kwezimboni), ukukhuphuka kwezinga lokushisa lomoya (ukukhuphuka kungenzeka ngasekupheleni kwekhulu lama-21. izinga lokushisa elingaphezulu kuka-6 ° C), ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle (ngokwesilinganiso - ngo-0.5 m ngekhulu).

Izinguquko ezingaba khona kakhulu ezintweni zesimo sezulu zifaka ukuhanjiswa ngamandla okukhulu, amazinga okushisa aphezulu, ukukhuphuka kwenani lezinsuku ezishisayo kanye nokwehla kwenani lezinsuku zesithwathwa cishe kuzo zonke izifunda zomhlaba, ngenkathi ezindaweni eziningi zamazwekazi amaza okushisa azoba njalo, kanye nokwehla kwezinga lokushisa.

Njengomphumela walezi zinguquko, umuntu angalindela ukwanda komoya kanye nokwanda kwezinga lesiphepho esishisayo (ukuthambekela okuvamile kokukhula okwaphawulwa kuze kube sekhulwini lama-20), ukwanda kokuvama kwezulu elisindayo, kanye nokwanda okubonakalayo kwezifunda zesomiso.

Ikhomishini Yezinhlangano Ezihlangene ikhombe izindawo eziningi ezisengozini kakhulu yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okulindelekile. Lesi yisifunda saseSahara, i-Arctic, i-mega-deltas of Asia, iziqhingi ezincane.

Izinguquko ezingezinhle eYurophu zifaka ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa nesomiso esandayo eningizimu (okuholela ekunciphiseni kwezinsiza zamanzi kanye nokwehla kwezizukulwane zokuphehla kwamandla kagesi, ukuncipha kokukhiqizwa kwezolimo, ukuwohloka kwezimo zezokuvakasha), ukwehla kwesembozo seqhwa nokubuyela emuva kwamaqhwa asezintabeni, ukwanda kwengozi yezikhukhula ezinzima kanye nezikhukhula ezinenhlekelele. emifuleni, okwandayo kwemvula ehlobo eCentral naseMpumalanga Yurophu, okwandisa imvamisa yemililo yehlathi, imililo kumaphegi ezinto, kunciphisa umkhiqizo wehlathi, kuyanda e Ukuqina kokuqina kwenhlabathi eNyakatho Yurophu. E-Arctic - ukwehla kwenhlekelele endaweni yokugcwala, ukwehla endaweni yeqhwa olwandle, nokwanda kokuguguleka kogu.

Abanye abacwaningi (ngokwesibonelo, uP. Schwartz noD. Randall) banikezela ngesimo sokungaqiniseki, ngokusho kokuthi kwikota yokuqala yekhulu le-XXI ukugxuma okukhulu esimweni sezulu kungenzeka endaweni engabekezeleki, futhi umphumela ungaba ukuqala kwenkathi entsha yeqhwa yemakhulu eminyaka.

Ukushisa komhlaba kuzomthinta kanjani umuntu?

Bethukile ukushoda kwamanzi okuphuza, inani elandayo lezifo ezithathelanayo, nezinkinga kwezolimo ngenxa yesomiso. Kepha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, akukho lutho ngaphandle kokulindeleka komuntu okulindelekile. Okhokho bethu babhekana nenkinga enkulu lapho, ngemuva kokuphela kwenkathi yeqhwa, izinga lokushisa lenyuka kakhulu ngo-10 ° C, kepha kwaba yikho okwaholela ekwakhiweni kwempucuko yethu. Ngaphandle kwalokho, cishe babeyozingela izilwane ezincelisayo ngemikhonto.

Vele, lesi akusona isizathu sokungcolisa umkhathi nganoma yini, ngoba esikhathini esifushane kuzofanela sikwenze kubi kakhulu. Ukushisa komhlaba wonkana kungumbuzo lapho udinga ukulandela khona ukubizwa komqondo ojwayelekile, ukunengqondo, ukungaweli emabhayisekili ashibhile futhi ungalandeli ukuhola kweningi, ngoba umlando uyazi izibonelo eziningi lapho iningi laliphutha kakhulu futhi lenza inkinga enkulu, kuze kufike ekushiseni imiqondo emikhulu, okwagcina kuqondile.

Ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kuyinkolelo-mbono yesimanje yokuhlobana, umthetho wokudonsa amandla kwendawo yonke, iqiniso lokujikeleza komhlaba ngokuzungeza ilanga, ubuwumbi bomhlaba wethu ngenkathi wethula umphakathi, lapho imibono ihlukaniswa futhi. Omunye ulungile. Kepha ubani lo?

Ngokwengeziwe kusihloko esithi "ukufudumala komhlaba."