I-Ice e-Arctic izoncibilika ngokuphelele ezinyangeni zasehlobo maphakathi nekhulu lama-21, kubhala iGeophysical Research Letters. Kubikwa ukuthi ososayensi baseJalimane bahlanganisa inqwaba yamamodeli ahlukahlukene wokuqalwa kwezenzakalo e-Arctic Ocean ngokusekelwe ekubukweni kwesatellite eminyakeni engama-40 edlule. Ikakhulu, ososayensi bazamile ukuthola ukuthi kuzokwenzakalani ngamaqhwa lapho kungenzeka kwehle kakhulu ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni dioksijini maduze nje, babuye babheka inketho lapho konke kusasele njengoba kunje. Ukulingisa kukhombisile ukuthi noma ngabe kunesimo esihle kakhulu, ngisho nangaphambi kuka-2050, iqhwa le-Arctic lizonyamalala ngokuphelele ehlobo bese kuphela elibandayo futhi ebusika. Ngakho-ke, ngokusho kochwepheshe, ngeke kusaba khona i-permafrost eNyakatho.
Uma sikunciphisa ngokushesha ukukhipha kwasemhlabeni futhi ngaleyo ndlela sigcine ukushisa komhlaba kungaphansi kuka-2 ° C okuhlobene namazinga angaphambi kwezimboni, noma kunjalo, iqhwa le-Arctic lolwandle ngezinye izikhathi linganyamalala ehlobo ngisho nangaphambi kuka-2050
I-Geophysicist evela eNyuvesi yaseHamburg
Abaphenyi bagcizelela ukuthi ngisho nokuncibilika kwamaqhwa okwenzeka ngesizini kuyinhlekelele yangempela yemvelo yasemhlabeni: Amabhere anezimbotshana, izimpawu kanye nezinye izilwane eziningi zizolahlekelwa indawo yazo yokuhlala. Kodwa-ke, izazi zezimo zezulu nokho ziveze ithemba lokuthi, uma nje amazinga wokungcola komoya ancishisiwe, kungenzeka ukuthi okungenani abuyele ebusika obunaphakade e-Arctic.
Ososayensi babuye bachaza ukuthi esinye isimo sihlala sikwenza kube lula ukunyamalala kwamaqhwa. Iqiniso ngukuthi iqhwa libonisa ukukhanya kwelanga futhi ngaleyo ndlela livimbela ukwanda kokushisa komoya. Ngakho-ke, ngokuhamba kweminyaka, njengoba kuncibilika ku-Arctic, kukhonjiswa imisebe ephansi, okuchaza ukuthi umoya uvutha bhe.
Imodeli, umlando kanye nokubikezela kwendawo yolwandle olwandle
Amamodeli wamakhompiyutha abikezela ukuthi indawo yeqhwa olwandle izoqhubeka inciphe ngokuzayo, yize umsebenzi wakamuva uphonsa ukungabaza emandleni abo okubikezela ngokunembile izinguquko olwandle olwandle. Izinhlobo zesimo sezulu zanamuhla zivame ukungabukeli phansi izinga lokuncipha kweqhwa olwandle. Ngo-2007, i-IPCC yabika ukuthi "e-Arctic, ukuncishiswa kukhava lweqhwa lomhlaba jikelele kubikwa kusheshisa, futhi ngokwezimo ezithile ze-A2 ezinesilinganiso esiphakeme sokukhuphuka, ikhava lolwandle ehlobo linyamalala ngokuphelele engxenyeni yesibili yekhulu lama-21." Okwamanje abukho ubufakazi besayensi bokuthi i-Arctic Ocean isike yakhululeka eqhweni eminyakeni engama-700,000 edlule, yize kube nezikhathi lapho i-Arctic yayifudumele kunanamuhla. Ososayensi bafunda izinto okungenzeka zibangele, njengokushintshwa okuqondile okuhambisana nomphumela wokugcina ukushisa, kanye nokushintsha okungaqondile, okufana nomoya ongajwayelekile, amazinga okushisa akhuphuka e-Arctic, noma ushintsho ekujikelezeni kwamanzi (ngokwesibonelo, ukwanda kokufika kwamanzi afudumele ku-Arctic Ocean kusuka emifuleni) .
Ngokwe-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "ukufudumala e-Arctic, njengoba kufakazelwa amazinga okushisa nsuku zonke namazinga okushisa aphansi, bekukukhulu njengakwenye ingxenye yomhlaba.” Ukunciphisa indawo yeqhwa olwandle e-Arctic kuholela ekunciphiseni kwamandla elanga abonakaliswa emuva emkhathini, ngaleyo ndlela kusheshiswe ukuncishiswa. Ucwaningo luye lwabonisa ukuthi ukufudumala kwakamuva nje ezindaweni ezi-polar kwakungenxa yomthelela ojwayelekile wethonya lomuntu, ukufudumala ngenxa yokuvezwa kwemisebe yamagesi abamba ukushisa kukhishwa ngengxenye ethile kuphela ngokupholisa ngenxa yokubhujiswa kwengqimba ye-ozone.
Ukulinganisa okunokwethenjelwa komphetho wolwandle olwandle kwaqala ngokufika kwezingwevu zomhlaba ezisebenza nge-Earth ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yo-1970. Ngaphambi kokuqala kwama-satellites, ucwaningo lwalesi sifunda lwenziwa ikakhulukazi kusetshenziswa imikhumbi, ama-buoys nezindiza. Ukwehluka okubalulekile kwezokuxhumana kukhona ekunciphisweni kwesembozo seqhwa. Ezinye zalezi zinguquko zingahle zihambisane nemiphumela efana ne-Arctic oscillation, engahle ihlotshaniswe nokushisa komhlaba, ezinye izinguquko empeleni ziba “ngumsindo wesimo sezulu” okungahleliwe.
I-Arctic sea ice, efinyelela ubuncane ngoSepthemba, ifinyelele irekhodi elisha ngonyaka we-2002, 2005, 2007 (amaphesenti angama-39,2 ngaphansi kwesilinganiso sika-1979-2000) nango-2012. Ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti 2007, inyanga ngaphambi kokuphela kwenkathi yokuncibilika, ukuncishiswa okukhulu e-Arctic ice kuwo wonke umlando wokubonwa kwabhalwa - amakhilomitha angaphezu kwesigidi. Ngokokuqala ngqa kwimemori yabantu, i-Northwest Passage edume ngayo yavulwa ngokuphelele. Kufinyelelwe kumakhilomitha-skwele ayizigidi ezingama-4,8. . Ukuncibilika okukhulu kuka-2007 kumangaze futhi kukhathaze ososayensi.
Kusukela ngo-2008 kuya ku-2011, iqhwa elincane kakhulu lolwandle e-Arctic laliphezulu kunango-2007, kodwa noma kunjalo alibuyelanga ezingeni leminyaka edlule. Ekupheleni kuka-Agasti 2012, amasonto ama-3 ngaphambi kokuphela kwenkathi yokuncibilika, kwabhalwa irekhodi elisha leqhwa elincane. Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa kamuva, ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, indawo yeqhwa olwandle yayingaphansi kwamakhilomitha skwele ayizigidi ezine. Okuncane kwafinyelelwa ngoSepthemba 16, 2012 futhi kwaba ngamakhilomitha skwele ayizigidi ezingama-3,39, noma amakhilomitha skwele angama-760,000 ngaphansi kwesilinganiso sokuqala ngoSepthemba 18, 2007. Kodwa-ke, ngonyaka we-2013, izinga lokuncibilika kweqhwa lalingaphansi kakhulu kunangesikhathi sika-2010-2012, ngoMeyi nangoJuni 2013 indawo eyiqhwa yayisiseduze nokujwayelekile, ngemuva kokuthola ubuncane bamakhilomitha skwele ayizigidi ezi-5 (ngokumelene ne-3.4 ngonyaka we-2012), yaqala ukukhula futhi. Ngokufanayo, ngonyaka ka-2014 indawo yeqhwa yayinkulu ukwedlula ngonyaka we-2008 kuya ku-12, ibiyizikwele zamakhilomitha-skwele ayizigidi eziyi-5.0, eseduze nenkambiso yango-1979-2010 (cishe amakhilomitha skwele ayizigidi eziyi-6.0).
Kufanele futhi kubhekwe ukuthi ngaphambi kuka-1979, lapho ukubonwa kwesatellite kungekenziwa, kubuye kwaqalwa izinkathi zangaphansi kweqhwa, esinye sazo ngo-1920-1940 sabangela nezingxoxo ngokushisa kwe-Arctic.
Ubukhulu beqhwa lasolwandle, futhi, ngokufanele, umthamo walo nobuningi bawo, kunzima kakhulu ukukala kunendawo. Izilinganiso ezinembile zingenziwa kuphela kwinombolo elilinganiselwe yamaphoyinti. Ngenxa yokushintshashintsha okukhulu kosayizi nokwakheka kweqhwa neqhwa, izilinganiso zezindiza kufanele zihlolwe ngokucophelela. Noma kunjalo, lezi zifundo ziqinisekisa ukucatshangwa kokuncipha okubukhali kweminyaka nobukhulu beqhwa. ICatlin Arctic Survey ibike ukuthi ubungako besilinganiso seqhwa bungamamitha ayi-1,8 enyakatho yeBeaufort Sea, okuyindawo ngokwesiko equkethe iqhwa elidala nelikhulu. Enye indlela ukwenza ngokwezibalo ngokulinganisa ukwakhiwa, ukukhukhuleka nokuncibilika kweqhwa kwimodeli ehlanganiswe yolwandlekazi ngamapharamitha wokufaka kahle ukuze umphumela ukhiphe idatha eyaziwayo ekuqineni nasendaweni yeqhwa.
Izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali eqhwa minyaka yonke e-Arctic liyanda. Ngo-1979-1996, ukwehla okuyisilinganiso esiyiminyaka eyishumi kwamazinga eqhwa kwakuyi-2.2% yevolumu kanye ne-3% yendawo. Eminyakeni eyishumi ephetha ngo-2008, la manani akhuphukele ku-10,1% no-10.7% ngokulandelana. Lokhu kuqhathaniswa noshintsho lokuncishiswa konyaka (okusho ukuthi, iqhwa laphakade eliqhubeka unyaka wonke). Esikhathini esisuka ku-1979 kuya ku-2007, ngokwesilinganiso kule minyaka eyishumi, ukuncishiswa kwezihlahla kwakuyi-10.2% no-11.4%, ngokulandelana. Lokhu kuyahambisana nezilinganiso ze-ICESat, okubonisa ukwehla kwezinga leqhwa e-Arctic kanye nokwehla kwendawo yeqhwa elinamandla. Phakathi kuka-2005 no-2008, indawo yeqhwa le-perennial yancishiswa ngo-42%, kwathi umthamo ngama-40%, ukulahleka kwaba ngu
Igrafu yendawo yokuqedwa konyaka kweqhwa e-Arctic kuyo yonke inkathi yokubuka kusukela ngo-1979 (eqoshwa njalo maphakathi no-Septhemba):
Ngokuphikisana nokubikezela ngemiphumela ezuzisayo yokushisa komhlaba ngokweqile kwesimo sezulu eRussia, imiphumela yaso ezweni lethu ingaba yinhlekelele.Meyi ngoMeyi, isigaba sesibili sokucwaninga kwamandla asogwini lwe-Arctic, esiqhutshwa yithimba leLabhorethri laseNyakatho Geoecology yoMnyango Wezobuchwepheshe waseMos State State, kufanele siphele.
Impikiswano mayelana nokushisa komhlaba yonkana sekuqhubeke iminyaka engaphezu kwamashumi amabili. Omunye ukholelwa ukuthi kungaholela ekufeni kwempucuko, futhi othile uthatha konke lokhu kuyicebo lososayensi abadinga uxhaso. Ukuqagela okuthe xaxa kuyesabisa umhlaba, kepha cishe kuzohlala kunomuntu othi angalunganga ngokungafanele, unethemba lokuphelelwa yithemba ngokweqile, noma ongafanele ngokuphelele.
UVictor Kuzovkov
Kuliqiniso, kunesenzo esisodwa - amashumi eminyaka adlulile anele ukuthi ezinye izinguquko zesimo sezulu zivele zibonakale. Futhi okwamanje, ososayensi banesisekelo esithile sokuqinisekisa esikuvumela ukuthi uqinisekise okuthile, uphikise okuthile futhi ulungise, ngale ndlela, noma yisiphi isibikezelo sesikhathi eside.
Kumele kwaziwe ukuthi akuyona indawo yokugcina ebekelwe izimpikiswano zezulu ezishisayo zaseRussia. Lokhu kwenzeka ngenxa yezizathu ezimbili: okokuqala, abaningi bethu bakholelwa ukuthi ukufudumala komhlaba kuzozuzisa iRussia kuphela ngenxa yokuthuthuka okujwayelekile kwesimo sezulu sayo esinzima, futhi okwesibili, ngenxa yendawo enkulu yensimu yaseRussia embozwe yi-permafrost. Iqiniso ukuthi udaba lwe-permafrost thawing lubaluleke kakhulu kangangokuba luhlala endaweni ehlukile enkingeni yesimo sezulu esijwayelekile. Futhi lokhu kuchazwa kalula: i-permafrost, lapho incibilikisiwe, ingakhipha i-carbon eningi kangangokuba inqubo yokushisa komhlaba ingashesha njenge-avalanche.
Kungakho isimo se-permafrost eRussia sesiqashelwe kakhulu. Ikakhulu, kakade ngoMeyi, isigaba sesibili sokutadisha kwamandla asogwini lwe-Arctic, esiqhutshwa yithimba leLaborator of Geoecology yaseNyakatho yoMnyango weJogragi yaseMos State State, kufanele sigcwaliswe. Lolu cwaningo lwenziwa njengengxenye yephrojekthi yeRussian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) No. 18-05-60300 “Thermal abrasion of the ugu lolwandle lwe-Russian Arctic”, futhi ithembisa ukuba ngomunye wabakhulu kunabo bonke emlandweni wanamuhla. Ososayensi banethemba lokuqoqa imininingwane ezobavumela ukuthi bakhe isithombe esiphelele kakhulu sokubhujiswa kogu lwe-Arctic, baveze izindlela ezisebenzayo futhi bathole nezinga lethonya lezinqubo zezulu lesimo sezulu ezinqubekweni zomhlaba nezasekhaya zokubhujiswa kogu endaweni ese-Arctic Russia.
Lolu cwaningo, ngaphezu kwesayensi, lubaluleke kakhulu futhi. Siyakwazi ukubaluleka kwengqalasizinda yamapayipi eRussia, ingxenye ebalulekile yayo etholakala endaweni eyi-Arctic. Inkinga yokwanda kokuncipha kwe-permafrost isivele ilungele izisebenzi zaseRussia nabasebenza embonini kawoyela, ngoba ubuchwepheshe obujwayelekile bokwakha endaweni ye-permafrost buandakanya ukubeka isisekelo noma ukushayela izinqwaba ngokujula lapho i-permafrost izinzile unyaka wonke. Manje, lapho lezi zinhlaka ziqala ukuguquka, abantu bavame ukuhlangana nenkinga yokuntuleka kwezisekelo, ukushibilika kwezakhiwo kanye nokungabikhona kokusebenza kwabo okuqhubekayo.
Ngenxa yesimo esiguqukayo, amadolobha aseRussia anjengeVorkuta, iPetropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, iSarekhard, iChita ne-Ulan-Ude asevele ehlaselwa. Futhi ngasekupheleni kwekhulu lamashumi amabili nanye, amadolobha asenyakatho anjengeMagadan, Yakutsk, Igarka angaba sengozini. Njengamanje, ngenxa yokuwohloka kwe-permafrost, kufinyelela kumaphesenti angama-60 izakhiwo ezise-Igarka, eDikson, eKhatanga zidilikile, zaze zafika emaphesenti ayi-100 emadolobhaneni eTaimyr Autonomous Okrug, ngamaphesenti angama-22 eTiksi, ngamaphesenti angama-55 eDudinka, ngamaphesenti angama-50 ePevek nase-Amderme, cishe amaphesenti angama-40 aseVorkuta.
Inkinga yokubhujiswa kogu lwe-Arctic nayo ibucayi impela. Ngaphansi kokushaywa ngamagagasi nesimo sezulu, ugu lwe-Arctic luyancipha ngamamitha angama-1-5 ngonyaka, nakwezinye izindawo, kuze kufinyelele kumamitha ayi-10 ngonyaka. Kubukeka sengathi esikalini seSiberia yethu lokhu akuyona into eningi kakhulu, kepha nokho: ngonyaka iRussia ilahlekelwa ngamakhulu wamakhilomitha skwele wesifunda sayo, okungukuthi, insimu yombuso omncane waseYurophu, njengeLiechtenstein. Futhi, umuntu akufanele akhohlwe ngamachweba namadolobha akhelene nogu, lapho lawo amamitha ayi-10 ngonyaka angabulawa khona.
Ngokuvamile, indawo ye-permafrost eMhlabeni ifinyelela kumakhilomitha-skwele ayizigidi ezingama-35, noma cishe ama-25% omhlaba wonke. Izinsalela ze-carbon dioxide ne-methane ekuwo ziyakwazi ukuthi, ngokuncipha okusebenzayo, i-permafrost iyakwazi ukukhipha ikhabhoni eningi emkhathini kunakho konke ukuphuma kwe-technogenic. Ngokuvamile, ngokusho kokuqagela okuthile, izinqolobane zekhabhoni ezikwi-permafrost zifinyelela kumathani ayizigidi eziyizigidi eziyi-1,67, okuyizikhathi eziphindwe izikhathi eziyi-8,3 kunokuqukethwe kwekhabhoni kumkhathi wonke. Kucace bha ukuthi akuyona yonke le khabhoni esesimweni sokugaya, ngokwezinga elikhulu lokhu namanje akusazona izinsalela zezinto eziphilayo ezibunjiweyo, kepha iqiniso lendaba ukuthi ngemuva kokuncipha, izinqubo zokubola zezinto eziphilayo ezinqwabelwe ngaphezulu kwezigidi zeminyaka zizohamba imiyalo eminingana yobukhulu ngokushesha okukhulu.
Ucwaningo lukhombisa ukuthi ukwanda kokushisa okuncane kwenhlabathi kwenzeka kulo lonke iRussia. Futhi ngaphezu kwakho konke kusezindaweni ezine-permafrost - eNtshonalanga naseMpumalanga iSiberia, eTransbaikalia. Kuleminyaka eyi-10 edlule, bekufika ku-0.4-0.8 ° C, okubonakala sengathi, akukuningi, kepha ngesilinganiso sekhulu leminyaka kungabulawa nje.
Ucwaningo lwanamuhla lusondela kakhulu esifundweni sezinqubo zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu eNyakatho neRussia. Ikakhulu, lolu cwaningo olushiwo ngenhla lwe-Faculty of Geography yaseMoscow State University lwenziwa kusetshenziswa izimoto ezingekho emthethweni (ama-UAV), futhi ukubhekisisa insimu kwenziwa cishe kuwo wonke umkhakha waseRussia we-Arctic, kuze kufike eChukotka. Kwavela ukuthi ngaphansi kwezimo zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ikakhulukazi okuphawuleka e-Arctic, ngenkathi efudumele, umngcele we-Drifting Driff udlulela eNyakatho, futhi indawo engasogwini iyakhululwa eqhweni isikhathi eside. Ngenxa yalokhu, ngenxa yokwanda kwesikhathi sesikhathi sokushisa nokusebenza ngamandla, isikhathi sesikhathi sokuncipha kwenhlabathi eqandisiwe kanye nomphumela wokusebenza kwamagagasi ogwini ukhuphuka.
Maye, naphezu kwako konke ukuphika kwabangabazi, ngemuva kuka-2005 kuye kwaba nokusheshisa ngezinga lokubhujiswa kogu lwe-Arctic. Kodwa-ke, ososayensi abayiboni le nhlekelele iqhubeka. Iqiniso ukuthi kungamanani ophefumulayo nemiphumela yamagagasi kuphela onganikeza umphumela omkhulu kakhulu futhi uchithe indawo enkulu kakhulu yolwandle. Kepha kuyashiwo kaningi ukuthi eminyakeni efudumele yolwandle ayiholeli kakhulu, futhi okuphindaphindekayo, izivunguvungu ezivame kakhulu nezishisa kakhulu zishisa isimo sezulu esifudumele, kwesinye isikhathi izinkulungwane zamakhilomitha ziqonde phakathi nezwe. Ngenxa yalokhu, izinqubo zokubhujiswa kogu azihambi ngokushesha okukhulu njengoba kungenzeka, futhi ngaphezu kwalokho, inqubo yokuhambisa inhlabathi ehlanjiwe kusuka ogwini iye olwandle oluvulekile iyehla.
Kodwa-ke, izindlela zokushisa kwesimo sezulu ziyesabisa impela. Ikakhulu, cishe kuzo zonke izingosi zokulinganisa eRussia, kukhuphuka ubukhulu beshizi elingancibilikayo ngesikhathi sasehlobo. I-ejensi yezindiza yaseMelika i-NASA yaze yethula imodeli yesimo sezulu esekwe ekhompyutheni, ngokusho ukuthi i-permafrost eRussia nase-Alaska izonyamalala ngo-2300. Isikhathi, kusobala, siyamangaza, kepha udinga ukuqonda ukuthi ngaleso sikhathi isimo sezulu sizobe sesishintshe kakhulu kangangokuba izinga lolwandle lizokhuphuka ngamamitha amamitha, kanti nezinguquko zesimo sezulu zizovele zingalindeleki.
Mhlawumbe ingozi enkulu futhi engaqondakali kangako ukuthi singaphuthelwa isikhathi lapho inqubo yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ingaphenduki. Ngemuva kokucunula ukuthamba kwe-permafrost, ubuntu ngesinye isikhathi bungathola ukuphuma okungalawulwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa emkhathini. Inqubo izoqala ukusheshisa, izonakekelwa ngokuncibilika okushesha kwamaqhwa ase-Antarctic, ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle, futhi konke lokhu kungakhula njenge-avalanche, kunciphise isikhathi esabelwe kithi sokulungisa kusuka kumakhulu kuye kumashumi eminyaka.Ngokuqondile, akukho lutho oluzolungiswa ngokuphelele, kepha imizamo yokuvikela isimo ngezinga elithile eyamukelekayo iyoba yize.
Ngakho-ke, yonke inkulumo ethi ukufudumala kwesimo sezulu kuletha iRussia ezinye izinzuzo kufanele zithathwe ngokungaqiniseki okukhulu. Ezinye izinzuzo zingatholakala. Kepha ingabe banxephezela ukulahleka okungenzeka - bobabili indawo, okwenziwe umuntu, nabanye, esingase singakwazi ngisho nokwazi?
Futhi uma kunjalo, sifisa abaphathi bethu besayensi baphumelele: uma nje bangavula amehlo ethu kulokho okwenzekayo, lokhu kuzoba yimpumelelo yabo enkulu. Yebo, kanye neyethu, kunjalo ...
Yini esongela i-Arctic kanye nomhlaba wonke?
Kukhona usongo emadolobheni nasezindaweni eziseduzane nase-Arctic Ocean. Uma izinga lamanzi likhuphuka kulo, khona-ke indawo yempumalanga yeNgilandi ne-Ireland ingakhukhulwa. Isiphetho esifanayo siyokwehlela nenyakatho yeFrance, iJalimane, iDenmark neBelgium. IRotterdam ne-Amsterdam zizosulwa ebusweni boMhlaba. Amadolobha amakhulu njengeWashington, New York neMiami nawo asengozini.
Amadolobha amaningi namazwe azoba sengozini yezikhukhula.
Ukushisa komhlaba kubizwa kakhulu e-Arctic. Kukule ndawo lapho izinga lokushisa likhuphuka ngokushesha okukhulu kunakwamanye amaplanethi. Iqhwa liyancibilika, ngaleyondlela kwandise ukukhuphuka kwamanzi. Lokhu kuholela ekutheni izakhamizi ezifundeni ze-Arctic ziqale ukuba nobunzima ekutholeni ukudla. Inani elanele lokudla lizoholela ekunciphiseni okukhulu kwenani lezimpawu zamanzi, amabhere omhlaba, ama-walrus kanye nezinye izakhamizi zale ndawo. Uma lo mkhuba uqhubeka, khona-ke ngo-2030 inani labantu abasemapolini selizoshabalala.
Izilwane ezinjengezikhova ezinamakhaza nezimpungushe ezingama-arctic nazo zizobekwa engcupheni. Bondla ikakhulu ngama-lemmings. Lezi zingabamele bamagundane abahlala ku-tundra. Kukhona ukuguquguquka okubukhali kokushisa, ukusuka ekukhulekeni kuye ekunciphiseni okukhulu. Lokhu kuzuba kuthinta kabi uhlaza, okungukudla okuyinhloko kwama-lemmings, futhi ukuncishiswa kwalo kuholele ekuqothulweni kwalezi zigundane. Ukufa kwalolu hlobo kuzodala ukuqothulwa kwezilwane eziningi. Izinyoni zasolwandle ezihlala futhi zidla eqhweni laphakade nazo zisengozini.
Inhlekelele yemvelo ayinakugwenywa, kusho ososayensi.
Ukushisa komhlaba wonke kuzoholela enhlekeleleni yemvelo, okuzodala umonakalo omkhulu kubantu abahlala kulezi zindawo.
Impilo nempilo yama Eskimos, Chukchi, evenks izobhujiswa, kuzodingeka ukuthi ashiye ikhaya lawo abuyele kabusha. I-Arctic izokufa, futhi sibonga impela kule ndawo ukuthi isimo sezulu seNyakatho Nenkabazwe siyalawulwa futhi amazinga okuphila enani labantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ayakhiwa. Uma amashumishumi eminyaka edlule, ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke bekuyikusasa elikude, manje iqiniso elibuhlungu, liyenzeka lapha nalapha.
Ingabe usongo lokuthula komhlaba wonke kungokoqobo?
Amathemba wokushisa komhlaba wonkana abangela ukwethuka, ukwesaba, ukwethuka nokuphelelwa yithemba. Kodwa uma ubheka le nto kusuka kolunye uhlangothi, khona-ke konke kuhlukile, isithombe siyakhuthaza ngokwengeziwe. Emhlabeni, uMhlaba, sonke isikhathi sokuphila kwawo wabonwa ngokushisa. Konke lokhu kwenzeka cyclically, njalo ngeminyaka engama-60. Ngakho-ke, kwenzeka ukuthi iminyaka engama-60 izinga lokushisa lehle, bese likhuphuka kakhulu.
Umjikelezo wokugcina onjalo wokugcina waqala ngo-1979. Futhi kulo mjikelezo, izinga lokushisa landa ngokuqinile. Ukusuka kulokhu, indawo yeqhwa e-Arctic yehle ngo-15-16%. Ngasikhathi sinye, i-Antarctic ayibhekene nento enjalo, kukhona ukwanda endaweni nobukhulu beqhwa. Kusukela ngo-1950, bekulokhu kwehla kwezinga lokushisa njalo. Ukushisa okuncane kungaba kuphela kwiNhlonhlo ye-Antarctic. Lokhu kuvame ukuhlotshaniswa nokwenyuka okuncane kumandla afudumele emngceleni wolwandlekazi lwePacific ne-Atlantic.
Umhlaba oijwayelekile ungashintsha ngaphandle kokuqashelwa.
Namuhla, ochwepheshe baqophe ukuthi izinga lamanzi olwandle likhuphuka nsuku zonke ngo-1,8 mm. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwekhulu le-19, amanzi akhuphuka lapho ngamasentimitha angama-30. Abanye ososayensi bathi ngo-2100 izinga loLwandle Lomhlaba luzokhuphuka ngo-50 cm, ngo-2300 leli nani lizoba ngamamitha ayi-1.5. I-Ice ayincibiliki eziqongweni zezintaba, njenge, ngokwesibonelo, Kilimanjaro. Futhi ezintabeni zaseKenya naseTanzania, izinga lokushisa liyehla, hhayi phezulu. Kwenzeka into efanayo naseHimalaya. Ukushisa komhlaba akusenamphumela kwi-Gulf Stream, okwathi ngokwesibikezeli kwakumele iyeke.
Namuhla, iningi lochwepheshe nabantu abavamile bayavuma ukuthi inhlekelele yemvelo ingukuqalwa kwezinkampani zezizwe ezikhiqiza ubuchwepheshe okonga amandla nemishini. Isimo sihunyushwa ngokweqile nangasodwa uhlangothi, ngakho-ke ukufa kwe-Arctic kanye nezakhamizi zayo kanye nomhlaba ophilayo akusongelwa.
Uma uthola iphutha, sicela ukhethe ucezu lombhalo bese ucindezela I-Ctrl + Faka.
Indawo yeqhwa lasolwandle e-Arctic ngoSepthemba nangoMashi ngokusho kokuqashelwa kwe-satellite (i-US National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC, University of Colorado, USA, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)
Imiphumela ejwayelekile yokufudumala
Ukusatshalaliswa komhlaba wonke kwoshintsho lokushisa okuzayo okulindelwe kubonakaliswa izici eziningi ezejwayelekile - kuzimo ezahlukahlukene zomthelela we-anthropogenic, lapho ukuphuma kwegesi lokushisa emhlabeni kudlala indima ebalulekile. Lesi sithombe - ngokufudumala okungathi sína komhlaba kuqhathaniswa nolwandle, kanye nokushisa okuphezulu e-Arctic - kugcinwe amashumi eminyaka wokuboniswa ngokomzimba nangokwezibalo kohlelo lwesimo sezulu, kufaka phakathi ukubalwa kwakamuva kakhulu. Imiphumela engaguquki yokulinganisa uhlelo lwesimo sezulu nayo ifaka: ukuguqulwa kancane kancane kweqhwa lasolwandle lonyaka kube yiqhwa lesizini, ukuncishiswa kwesembozo seqhwa somhlaba, ukonakaliswa kwe-permafrost kanye nokwanda kwezulu e-Arctic.
I-Arctic ingesinye sezifunda ezine zomhlaba ezikhonjwe yi-IPCC njengezisengozini kakhulu ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu (kanye nezindawo ezincane zesiqhingi, i-Afrika, kanye nama-megadeltas emifula yase-Afrika neyase-Asia). Ngasikhathi sinye, isifunda sase-Arctic siyisibonelo esibonakalayo sokuguqulwa kwezinkinga zesayensi zaba zepolitiki. Izinguquko zesimo sezulu esisheshayo esibonwe emashumini eminyaka amuva ku-Arctic kanye nezinguquko ezinkulu kakhulu ezilindelwe ngekhulu lama-21 zingabhebhethekisa kakhulu izinkinga ezikhona noma zidale izinkinga ezintsha phakathi. Lezi zinkinga zihambisana nokusesha nokukhipha amandla, ukusetshenziswa kwezindlela zokuhamba zasolwandle kanye nemithombo yezinto eziphilayo, ukucekelwa phansi kwamashalofu ezwekazi, isimo sezemvelo, njll. Futhi zingaba yisici ekubekweni phansi kwemisebenzi yasolwandle (kufaka phakathi amasosha asolwandle) esifundeni.
Ushintsho lwesimo sezulu selunemiphumela emibi ezinhlelweni zemvelo, zomnotho nezenhlalo zeRussia Arctic. Amathuba okukhulisa le miphumela aphezulu kakhulu, imiphumela eminingi elindelekile ayibi. Ngasikhathi sinye, ukufudumala kwesimo sezulu kuzobandakanya ukuthuthukiswa kwezimo zesimo sezulu sokuthuthuka kwendawo ye-Arctic, yize i-Arctic izosala phakathi kwezindawo zinesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu nezesimo sezulu.
Ukusatshalaliswa kwezwe kokufudumeza komhlaba okuphakathi konyaka ekupheleni kwekhulu lama-21. Imiphumela yezibalo eziphindaphindeka kusetshenziswa ukuhlanganiswa kwamamodeli wesimo sezulu angama-31 CMIP5 asetshenziswe ku-5th IPCC Test Report (2013) yesimo "esiphakathi" RCP4.5. Izinguquko zokushisa ngu-2080-2099 ezihlobene nesikhathi 1980-1999 ziyaboniswa.
Ukunciphisa iqhwa kolwandle i-Arctic Ocean
Imiphumela engaba khona yoshintsho ekumbozweni kweqhwa le-Arctic Ocean ibalulekile kwimvelo nakwezomnotho, emkhakheni wezenhlalo nasekuvikelekeni kwezwe. Okokuqala, lokhu kungukukhuphuka kwesikhathi sokuzulazula kwehlobo nokuthuthukiswa kokuzulazula kwasolwandle (kufaka phakathi impahla), kanye nezokuvakasha (kufaka phakathi i-ecotourism), ngokuyinhloko emgudwini woLwandle lwaseNyakatho. Ngasikhathi sinye, izinga eliphakeme lokuhlukahluka kwezimo zeqhwa lingaphazamisa izinhlobo eziningi zemisebenzi yokulwa nolwandle.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukufinyelela olwandle ezinsizakalweni zemvelo ze-Arctic, kufaka phakathi ukufakwa kwamandla eshalofini le-Arctic Ocean. Lokhu kuvula amathuba amasha entuthuko yezomnotho, ukudala amathuba emisebenzi emisha, kepha ngasikhathi sinye kudala izinkinga ezengeziwe zemvelo kanye nomsebenzi wezomnotho. Ikakhulu, ukwehla kwesembozo seqhwa sezilwandle zase-Arctic, ikakhulukazi ekuqaleni kwekwindla, kukhuphula umthelela olimazayo wezivunguvungu ezigudle ugu lwasolwandle, kwandisa ukulimala kwezikhungo zezomnotho ezikuyo kanye nosongo ezimpilweni zabantu abahlala lapho. Izikhathi zokuqala kokuncibilika kanye nezikhathi sekwedlule isikhathi sokubuyiselwa kwesembozo seqhwa zenza kube ntekenteke ngokwengeziwe, kukhulisa kakhulu ubungozi, kunciphisa ubude besikhathi kanye nokusebenza kahle kokuzingela kwabantu bendabuko bakulesi sifunda.
Ukushisa kwesimo sezulu kungaholela ekwakhiweni kwezinye izindawo zokudoba, kube nezindawo zokuhlala kanye nezindlela zokufuduka kwezinhlobo eziningi zezinhlanzi eziguqukayo. Izinguquko ezilindelekile kumbozo weqhwa oLwandle lwe-Arctic zingazenza zibe zimbi kakhulu izimo nendawo yokuhlala yezinhlobo ezithile zezilwane, njengokuthi, ngokwesibonelo, ibhele elinamakhaza.
Enye yezinkinga ezibaluleke kakhulu kwezomnotho eziphakama maqondana nezinguquko ezilindelekile ekumbozweni kweqhwa oLwandle Olumhlaba ikusasa lemikhumbi ephihliza iqhwa. Ngokusobala, akudingeki nje ukuthi unciphise, kodwa, kunalokho, ukuthuthukisa imikhumbi eqhwa iqhwa, kufaka phakathi ukusetshenziswa kwezikepe ezinkulu zeqhwa. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, e-Arctic yokufudumeza, ukufinyelela komkhumbi ezindaweni eziphakeme kanye nokwenyuka kwezomnotho neminye imisebenzi kulesi sifunda kulindeleke ukuthi kwenziwe lula. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukugcinwa okungenani kwesembozo seqhwa okungenani sonyaka (yize ubukhulu obungaphansi, ukuhlangana nobude), kanye nokwanda kwenani lama-icebergs athikameza ukufinyelela kwemikhumbi oluya e-Arctic Ocean. Ama-Icebreaker aklanyelwe ukusiza ukuxazulula uhla lwezinkinga ezikhulayo, ukuqinisekisa ukuba khona kokucwaninga neminye imikhumbi esifundeni se-Arctic.
Indawo yeqhwa olwandle (izigidi sq. Km) ngoSepthemba eNyakatho Nenkabazwe ngezimo ezimbili zempembelelo ye-anthropogenic ohlelweni lwesimo sezulu: isilinganiso esijwayelekile samamodeli angama-30 CMIP5 - ngesimo se-RCP4.5 (umugqa oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka) nesimo se-RCP8.5 (umugqa obomvu), kanye nokusakazeka kwe-intermodel ngaphakathi kwe-10th ne-90th percentiles (okuhlaza okotshani nokuhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, ngokulandelana). Umugqa omnyama ungumphumela wokuhlaziywa kokubonwa kwesatellite yesikhathi sonyaka we-1979-2016 (i-US National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC)
Ukudilizwa kwe-demafrost kufaka usongo ekuthembekeni nasekuqineni kwezakhiwo zezakhiwo nezinhlaka zobunjiniyela ezakhiwe phezu kwalo. Ubungozi obukhulu buthinta ingqalasizinda yezomnotho namapayipi amakhulu, okubaluleke kakhulu enyakatho yeNtshonalanga yeSiberia ngenxa yokuba khona kwesifundazwe esikhulu kunazo zonke esinegesi eRussia kule ndawo.
Izinguquko ezilindelekile embusweni we-hydrological zihambisana nengozi eyandayo yezikhukhula emilonyeni yabathile (hhayi bonke!) Imifula egeleza e-Arctic Ocean, ikakhulukazi i-Yenisei neLena.
Olunye ushintsho luhlobene nokubuyiselwa kwezinye izinhlobo zendabuko yemvelo kanye nemvelo yomhlaba, amanzi asha kanye asolwandle, kufaka phakathi ukuhlaselwa (ukuhlaselwa) kwezinhlobo zezitshalo ezintsha, izinambuzane, izinto eziphilayo ezincane. Kukhona ubungozi nokusongela impilo kanye nempilo yabantu bomdabu, kufaka phakathi izinguquko empilweni, ekwakhiweni komsoco nakwezokuqashwa.
Okuqaphelekile ikakhulukazi ukuthi ingozi yokuqinisa imiphumela ye-systemic (synergistic) yokuphelele kwemiphumela. Isibonelo ukwanda kwengozi ye-anthropogenic nokusongela emvelweni ye-Arctic ngenxa yokutholakala kalula kwe-Arctic kanye nokuqina kokuthuthuka kwayo, okuholela ekungcolisweni kwemvelo nasemiphumeleni eyingozi esintwini, izimbali nezilwane.
Ukuncishiswa kwalezi zingozi nezinsongo kudinga ukuthi kuthathwe izinyathelo ezithile zombuso, kubandakanya nezimo zokuzivumelanisa nezinguquko zesimo sezulu esikhona njengamanje nesilindelekile. Lokhu kubonakala ku-Climate Doctrine ye-Russian Federation, evunywa ngumongameli ngonyaka we-2009. Imfundiso igxile ekusekelweni kwesayensi kwenqubomgomo yesimo sezulu yaseRussia, kubandakanya nokuqinisekisa ukuthi ucwaningo lwesimo sezulu lukazwelonke luhambisana namazinga omhlaba. Imfundiso, phakathi kokunye, ifaka ukuthuthukiswa kanye nokuqaliswa kwecebo likahulumeni elifanele futhi, ngokwesisekelo salo, ezinhlelweni zenhlangano, zesifunda kanye nezinhlelo nezinhlelo zokusebenza, kubandakanya maqondana ne-Arctic.
UVladimir Kattsov, udokotela wefiziksi kanye nezibalo, umqondisi we-Main Geophysical Observatory uqanjwe ngemuva A.I. I-Voeikova Roshydromet
Isifunda sase-Arctic siyisibonelo esiyingqayizivele sokuguqulwa kwezinkinga zesayensi zaba zezepolitiki.
Imibuzo eminingi maqondana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kwe-Arctic yesikhathi esizayo kanye nomthelela wayo esimweni sezulu esingaphezu kokuphakeme komhlaba osenyakatho uhlala uvulekile. Ngokwengxenye enkulu, zihambisana nezilinganiso zokulinganisa, kufaka phakathi ukucacisa inani lezinguquko ezilindelekile. Lezi zingqinamba zifaka okulandelayo:
- Kungekudala kangakanani isembozo seqhwa soLwandlekazi i-Arctic sisuka esimeni sonyaka siye kwesinye?
- Ngokushesha futhi kungakanani ikhabhoni equkethe i-permafrost eyonakalisayo engangena emkhathini futhi kungakanani lokhu okuzokuqinisa impendulo enhle phakathi kokushisa kwesimo sezulu nokuncibilika kwe-permafrost?
- Ukukhishwa okuthe xaxa kwamanzi amsha kusuka e-Arctic kungathinta kanjani ukwakheka kwamanzi ajulile enyakatho ye-Atlantic futhi kungakuthinta kanjani lokhu kudluliswa okushisa okujwayelekile okwenziwa olwandle oluseNyakatho ye-Atlantic?
- Ngabe ukucatshangelwa kwezinqubo ezinamandla zamashidi eqhwa kungaholela ekusizeni okukhulu kokuncibilika, ngokwesibonelo, kweshidi leqhwa laseGreenland ngaphansi kwezimo zokufudumala komhlaba okuqhubekayo?
- Kuze kube nini amagagasi angajwayelekile futhi alindelekile okushisa nokubandayo, izikhukhula ezinkulu nesomiso kungahlanganiswa nokushisa kwe-Arctic?
- Inkinga yesayensi enzima kakhulu: ingabe ukubikezela kwesimo sezulu se-polar ezikalini zesikhathi kusuka enkathini kuya kweshumi kuya kuncike ekuguqukeni kwesikompilo?
Isahluko se-Arctic eNcwadini Enkulu Yezimo Zesimo Sezulu
Izinguquko ezimbozekweni seqhwa zoLwandlekazi i-Arctic zingase zibe zimbi kakhulu izimo nendawo yokuhlala kwezilwane zase-Arctic
Isithombe: Alexander Petrosyan, Kommersant
Ukube incwadi enkulu ye-Climate Metaphors ibikhona, i-Arctic ngokungangabazeki ifanelwe yisahluko esihlukile. Lapho nje i-Arctic ibizwa ngenxa yezindawo zayo ezinesimo sezulu: ikhishi lesimo sezulu, igumbi lokubanda elibandayo, kanye ne-canary emayini yamalahle (ama-canaries azwela kakhulu ukungcola kwasemkhathini njenge-methane noma i-carbon monoxide: ukumisa ukuculwa kwale canaries okulethwe emayini kuwuphawu lwabavukuzi mayelana nesidingo sokuphuma ngokuphuthumayo), kanye ne-epicenter yokushisa komhlaba, kanye ne-erogenous zone yohlelo lwezulu lomhlaba.
Ngayinye yalezi zingathekiso inobuhle obuningi. Kodwa-ke, ezinye zazo zisengozini yokulahlekelwa ukufana engxenyeni elandelayo yekhulu. Ngakho-ke, sikweleta uJack London enye yezingathekiso zezinkondlo ezazisebenza njengegama lendaba yakhe encane edabukisayo, iWhite Silence. Ingabe lesi silinganiso sizosinda ekushiseni nasekuhloleni okuhlobene kwe-Arctic ngekhulu lama-21? Noma ngabe "umsindo obomvu" ubuzoba yifanekisthi efanelekayo - ngokufana nombala wephalethi lamamephu wezinguquko ekushiseni kwamazinga okukhanya kolwandle nokukhululwa olwandle?