U-fig. 15. Isibonelo esivelayo sokukhula kwesibalo somuntu okwenziwe unicellular, ahlukanisa njalo amahora ama-4.
Ukuze ukukhula kwesibalo kwabantu kuhambisane nale modeli, i-coefficient r kumele ibe njalo, i.e. inani elijwayelekile lezingane ngamunye kufanele libe njalo (uma r = 0, i.e., inzalo ilingana nokufa, ke usayizi wabantu awukhuphuki).
Ngokuya ngenani le-r, ukwanda kwenani labantu kungashesha futhi kunalokho kube kancane. C. Darwin wabala amathuba wokukhula angaba khona ezinhlobonhlobo zezinto ezihlukile lapho kusetshenziswa imodeli exonential. Ngokusho kokuqagela kwakhe, isibalo sezizukulwane esisodwa sezindlovu - ukuzalaniswa kwezilwane kancane kakhulu - sizofinyelela ezigidini eziyi-19 ngeminyaka engama-750. Uma siphendukela ezilwaneni ezihlala isikhathi eside kangako futhi zizalwe ngokushesha, amanani azoba umxhwele ngokwengeziwe. Kumagciwane ahlukanisa njalo ngemizuzu engama-20, i-biomass ingakheka iseli elilodwa lamagciwane ngemuva kwamahora angama-36, elizomboza umhlaba wonke ngesendlalelo esingu-30 cm, bese kuthi ngemuva kwamanye amahora ama-2 ungqimba lwe-2 m.
"Njengoba awekho amagciwane noma izindlovu ezimboza umhlaba ngesendlalelo esiqhubekayo, kusobala ukuthi empeleni emvelweni ukukhula okubonakalayo kwezinhlobo zezinto eziphilayo kungenzeki nhlobo, noma kwenzeka, kodwa okwesikhashana, kulandelwa ukwehla kwamanani noma ukufika ezingeni lokuma "(Gilyarov, 1990, k. 77).
Emvelweni, ukwanda okubonakalayo kwenani labantu kubonakala ngesikhathi esifushane sokuphila kwabo ngaphansi kwezimo ezinhle kakhulu, lapho izinsiza zivame ukwenziwa. Ngakho-ke echibini lamathambeka anesimo sezulu entwasahlobo ngemuva kokuncibilika kweqhwa kungqimba lwamanzi aqukethe izakhi zomzimba eziningi. Ngalesi sizathu, ngemuva kokushisa amanzi kukhona ukwanda okusheshayo kwenani lama-diatoms ne-algae eluhlaza. Kodwa-ke, futhi iyaphela ngokushesha lapho lezi zisetshenziswa zisetshenzisiwe futhi, ngaphezu kwalokho, i-zooplankton iqala ukudla ngentshiseko i-algae (okungukuthi, ngokulawula inani labantu "ukusuka ngaphansi" kanye "ngaphezulu").
Isibonelo sokukhula kwesibalo sabantu emlandweni owethulwe umlando wokulethelwa kabusha kweziqhingi. Ngakho-ke kusuka kubantu abangama-25 (abesilisa aba-4 nabesifazane abangama-21) baletha esiqhingini saseSt Paul (olwandle iBering), ngo-1938 kwakhiwa izinhlwathi ezingama-2 000. Kodwa-ke, ukwehla kwamanani kwalandela, kwathi ngo-1950 kwaba abantu abayi-8 kuphela ababesindile. Isizathu sokuwa kwesibalo sabantu ukwephulwa kwesitshalo - ubudlelwane be-phytophage (bona u-8.3) ngenxa yokungabikho kwesixhumanisi sesithathu emgodini wokudla - umanduleli.
Imodeli enengqondo yokukhula kwesibalo sabantu, echazwe yi-S-shape curve (ukukhula kancane - ukukhula ngokushesha - ukukhula kancane, umdwebo 16), kwahlongozwa futhi ekuqaleni kwekhulu le-19 yisazi sezibalo saseBelgian P.F. I-Verhulstom, bese ku-20s. yeminyaka yethu ephinde yatholakala ngososayensi baseMelika uR. Perle noL. Reed. P.V. I-Turchin ibheka le modeli njengesibonakaliso somthetho "wokuzibamba ngokwanda kokukhula kwanoma yisiphi isibalo sabantu."
U-fig. 16. Imodeli enengqondo yokukhula kwesibalo sabantu. K - Inombolo yomkhawulo
Izizathu zokuncipha kokukhula kwesibalo sabantu zingahluka kakhulu: izinsiza zokudla, umthelela wokugoqeka (ngamagundane, ubungako bendlela yokuzala kuyancipha), ubuthi bendawo ngendawo yokufihla ikhanda, bedla inani labantu ngabazingeli, njll.
Noma kunjalo, ijika leli nalo lisebenza kahle, ngoba alibonakali kakhulu emvelweni. Kaningi, ngemuva kokukhula kwesibalo sabantu kufinyelela ethafeni (kufinyelela kumkhawulo K ohambelana nenani lezinsizakusebenza), ukwehla okungazelelwe kwenani laso kwenzeka, bese inani labantu liphinda likhule ngokushesha. Ngakho-ke, amandla ayo abunjiwe ahlanganiswe nemijikelezo yokuphindwa kwezinto.
Ukuguquguquka okunjalo kwe-cyclic kuyabonakala, ngokwesibonelo, kubantu abaningi be-tundra lemmings abadla kuma-mosses nama-lichens. Baqhubeka nempilo yabo esebenzayo ngaphansi kweqhwa futhi badla izisekelo zabo zokudla kangangokuba bayeka ukuzala, bese beqala ukufelwa ngumuntu ongondlayo. Ngemuva kokuba ama-mosses ebuyele emuva, kuqala ukwanda kwenani lama-lemmings.
Ukushintshashintsha kwesilinganiso senani labantu kungenzeka ngaphansi kwethonya lesimo sezulu, izimuncagazi nezidlamlilo.
Kukhona inketho ekhethekile yokulawula ukushuba kwesibalo sabantu, esibizwa nge- "mukana", i.e. ezingahambelani nemithetho "efanele" echazwe yi-exponential noma i-logistic curve.
Abahloli (ama-r-Strategist) bahlangabezana nokuqubuka esimweni lapho kuvela izinsiza eziningi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhula kwamanani kwenzeka noma kungenxa yokuthi abantu abavela ekuphumuleni kwe-diasporas (yithi, ibhange lomhlabathi lezimbewu) baqala ukukhula, noma ngenxa "yokufika" okukhulu esigabeni samaqanda (yithi, izimpukane ezivele isidumbu sesilwane). Njengoba ukuncintisana ngenxa yobuningi bezinsiza kubuthakathaka, sebedle ubuningi babo, inani labantu liyafa ngokuphelele.
Ngokukhula kwesibalo sabantu esandayo, izitshalo ezihlolwayo zanda ngokuncintisana, kepha ukuzenzaka akwenzeki (njengasezihlahleni ze-violet), futhi usayizi wabantu uyancipha ngamashumi nangamakhulu ezikhathi. Ngasikhathi sinye, izitshalo zihamba kuwo wonke umjikelezo wempilo futhi ziyakwazi ukukhiqiza imbewu.
J. Harper (Harper, 1977) wabiza lolu hlobo lokuphathwa kwabantu besitshalo ngonyaka ngokuthi "ipulasitiki" futhi waliqhathanisa nokuzisika. Lezi zinhlobo ezimbili zokulawulwa kokuxinana kwabantu ezimithini zixhunyaniswa ngoguquko: ezinhlotsheni eziningi ezinamasu wesibili, lapho inani labantu landa, bobabili ubungako babantu kanye nokuzisusa ngasikhathi sinye kunciphe.
Ngokusekelwe olwazini lwalezi amaphethini, i-rationale yesiko lokuhlwanyelwa kwezitshalo ezitshaliwe yakhiwe. Ekuqaleni, ngokukhuphuka kwezinga lokuhlwanyelwa, isivuno siyakhula, kodwa bese siqala ukuncipha. Izinga lokuhlwanyelwa elinikeza isivuno esiphezulu likhethiwe. Kodwa-ke, kwesinye isikhathi kuba nokudla okuthe xaxa ukuze izitshalo ezitshaliwe zingacindezela abantu abanokhula. Ngokunyuka kokulawulwa kwe-herbicidal, lokhu akudingekile.
U-fig. 17. Ukuncipha kwesivuno sikakolweni ngesilinganiso sokutshala ngaphansi kwezimo ezifanele zemvelo.
1. Chaza imodeli ebonakalayo yokukhula kwesibalo sabantu.
2. Kungani imodeli yokukhula okubonakalayo ingaqapheleki kakhulu emiphakathini yemvelo?
3. Yini izigaba zemodeli yokuphakama kokukhula kwesibalo sabantu?
4. Yini ebangela amandla omjikelezo wabantu?
5. Yini abantu ababizwa ngamathuba?
7.4. Ukwakhiwa kobudala babantu
Ama-curvival curves angabonakala ngezinhlobo ezahlukahlukene zamandla abantu: ngokuqala "okukodwa" kwenqwaba yabantu abangena endaweni yamahhala, noma ngokugeleza "kwenani" lapho abanye abantu befa bese abanye bethatha isikhala esivulekile (isimo "sesiteshi" lapho inani labantu liphuma khona abagibeli bahlala benxephezelwa ngabokufika okusha). Ngenxa yalokho, emiphakathini ehlukene ngokubalwa kwesikhathi esisodwa, kuvezwa ukwakheka kobudala obuhlukile.
Akunakwenzeka ukuthola iminyaka ephelele yomuntu kuyo yonke inhlobo. Akunzima ukwenza lokhu ngezihlahla, usebenzisa okokushayela okuyisipesheli, okusetshenziselwa ukukhipha ikholomu lokhuni - umongo bese ubala inani lamasongo esihlahla kuwo. Esihlahleni sohlobo oluthile ezimeni ezithile (i.e., nge-bonitet eyodwa), kungenzeka ukunquma iminyaka ngokunemba kweminyaka engu-5 ngobubanzi besiqu. AmaConifers, ubudala bunqunywa yinani lama-whorls amahlumela esiqwini. Kodwa-ke, kumakhambi, ukuthola ubudala ngokuphelele kunzima, futhi ngenxa yalokho "iminyaka yabo yobudala" (isigaba) iyahlolwa.
Ezitshalweni eziphakeme ze-spore (ama-ferns, ama-horsetails, imiqhele), izigaba zezinhlansi, ukukhula kwe-gametophyte, ama-sporophytes amasha nama-sporophytes amadala avelele.
Isipiliyoni esibanzi sokuhlonza izizinda ezihlobene nobudala zezitshalo sinqwabelaniswe ngabasebenza nge-botanists-demographs (LB Zagolugova, OV Smirnova, LI Zhukova nabanye, ithebula 7).
Ithebula 7 Ukuguqulwa kwezakhi ze-palegenesis zezitshalo eziqhakazayo (ngokusho kweZhukova, ngo-1987)
Ubunzima bokubala
Ngokusho kukaMizin, emashumini ambalwa eminyaka edlule, kwakukhona ukulungiswa kabusha kwezihlahla zasendle eziyizigidi ezingama-2-2,2, futhi ezikhathini zangaphambilini zomlando kwakukhona okungaphezulu. Manje izinkokhelo ezimbili zalaba bantu abangashintshiwe zibhalwe kwiNcwadi ebomvu yaseRussia Federation, ezinye ezimbalwa - ezincwadini ezibomvu zezifunda ezingama-23 zaseRussia. Ohlelweni olusha lweRus Red Book, uhlu lwezindawo ezifuna ukuvikelwa ezikhethekile luzokwandiswa.
UMizin ubonile ukuthi manje ucwaningo jikelele lwe-a emoyeni alwenziwa, okuyinto, njengasesikhathini seSoviet, oluzohlanganisa zonke izifunda. "Kunokukhathazeka ukuthi isibalo samacembe asendle esinawo asedlulile. Asitholi idatha ethembekile ngenani laso," echaza.
Ngakho-ke, esifundeni saseMurmansk babuyela ekubaleni okuhleliwe kuphela manje, ngemuva kweminyaka engu-15 yokuphazamiseka. Njengoba i-TASS itshelwe nguDmitry Kask, inhloko yomkhakha wokubalwa kwezimali kanye nokuqapha izinto zasendle zoMnyango Wezemvelo Yesifunda saseMurmansk, le misebenzi izokwenziwa ngokuhlelekile ngoMashi 2017. "Ukuqashwa komoya kunikeza isithombe esiphelele kunazo zonke zemihlambi yezinyamazane, kepha kusukela ngo-2001, ngenxa yokushoda kwemali, akukaze kwenziwe," kusho uKask.
ETaimyr kuphela, lapho ukubalwa kokuqala kwezwe okwenzeka khona ngo-1959, ukulawula inani lezilwane ezivela emoyeni kwenziwa yi-Harvest Service, i-Wild Reindeer Migration Alert Service, i-Northern Detachment, Gosokhotnadzor kanye nemvelo yokugcina. Manje ucwaningo lwe-aerial enhlonhlo ayenzeki ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme - ihora lendiza enophephela emhlane enophephela emhlane ibiza ama-ruble ayizinkulungwane ezingama-200.
"Engxenyeni eseYurophu yezwe, isimo esidabukisayo sivele ngokuhlala ndawonye kwamahlathi. Ukuqothulwa kwamahlathi kanye nokuzingela okungakaze kube khona kuholele ekunciphiseni kwesibalo sezilwane amahlandla ayisihlanu kuya kwayishumi," kusho uMizin.
Ngapha kwe-Urals, iqembu elikhulu kakhulu lezinyamazane zasendle lihlala eKrasnoyarsk Territory - eTaimyr.
"Manje silinganisela ukuthi le mfuyo isezinkulungwaneni eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-400-500, ngonyaka wezi-2000 isibalo sabantu abasebenza zasendle safinyelela kumakhanda ayizigidi eziyi-1. Ngalesi sikhathi, sekuphelile. Uma isimo siphikelela, ngo-2020, ngokusho kwesimo sezulu, inani labantu lingase yehle yaya kubantu abayizinkulungwane eziyi-150-200. Ngaphezu kwalokho, elinye ikusasa labasubathi bazothuthuka, "kusho uLeonid Kolpashchikov, inhloko yomnyango wesayensi weTaimyr Reservation.
UDerer uyafa ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukene: ngokwesibonelo, eminyakeni yamuva isibalo sezimpisi e-tundra sikhuphuke kakhulu, kepha isici esiyinhloko ukuzingela. Abahloli bokuzingela abangama-800 kuphela abangamakhilomitha skwele ayizinkulungwane ezingama-800 weTaimyr. "Abasebenzi abancane abahloli bezokuzingela abakwazanga ukulawula ukudotshwa kwezinhlanzi zasendle, okwenziwa ngokwephula isikhathi, umthamo nezindlela zokukhiqiza. Ngokuvamile, isimo sokudoba siphume silawulwa ngasikhathi sinye nokwanda kokuzingela okungalawulwa kulo lonke uhla lwasendle oluvela e-Yakutia kuya kuYamal." - kuchaze uKolpashchikov.
"E-Yakutia, inani elikhulu kunawo wonke ama-Yango-Indigirian kuma-80s lehliswe amahlandla ayishumi saba izilwane ezi-2," kusho u-Innokenty Okhlopkov, unobhala wesayensi we-Institute of Biological Problems of the Cryolithozone.
IShotgun nembazo
Ngokusho kukaKolpashchikov, izinyamazane zivunwa eTaimyr ngabalimi kanye nenani labantu basezifundeni ezingomakhelwane zeYakutia, osebeni elingakwesobunxele leYenisei, elivela naseBekkia. Esifundeni saseNorilsk sodwa, ngakwesobunxele soMfula iYenisei kanye nasezansi kwethafa lePutorana Plateau, abazingeli abangaphezu kwenkulungwane bayazingela ekwindla.
Ngo-1971-1990, lapho kwakunesistimu ehlelekile yezentengiso yokwenziwa kwama-reindeer, kubabambiqhaza baseTaimyr bakhiqiza izilwane eziyizinkulungwane eziyishumi ngonyaka. Manje - izinyamazane eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-45-50 (isigamu senani lezilwane ezibanjiwe futhi zafa ngezizathu ezahlukahlukene). "Ingxenye ekhiqiza kakhulu yomhlambi iyaxoshwa, ngenxa yalokho, ukuguquguquka kobulili kanye nobudala bemhlambi wezinkomo, kutholakala amathole ambalwa," kusho uKolpashchikov.
"Isibalo samaTaimyr sibhidlizwa ngendlela engakaze ibonwe, ngokubona kwethu. Isibalo sabantu abaphethe izikhali nezimoto zeqhwa sikhule kakhulu. Eminyakeni embalwa edlule bekunomkhuba wokuvunwa kwezalukazi nezinyamazane zasendle," kuphawula uMizin.
Imvamisa lokhu kwenzeka ekuwela umfula imifula, emanzini inyamazane alikwazi ukuzivikela ngokuphelele. Abazingeli bangena ezilwaneni ezikebheni zezimoto, bezicosha izinyoka ngezinsimbi nangokubopha izikebhe, zivame ukuhlangana nethambo elingaphambili. Amadoda amaningi akhiqiza kakhulu ayafa kule nqubo eyisisekelo.
Ngokusho koMnyango Wezezilwane waseTaimyr, kusukela ngoFebhuwari kuya ku-Agasti 2015, kwathathwa amathani angama-61 ezimpondo okuthiwa zadonswa ezifuywayo endaweni kaTaimyr. Ngo-2016, cishe amathani angama-20 emikhiqizo yezikhwanyana athengwa emfuleni iKhatanga naseKheta (East Taimyr) kuphela. Ngokusho kukaKolpashchikov, empumalanga yeTaimyr akukho sitoko esikhulu sezinyamazana ezifuywayo, okusho ukuthi okungenani ingxenye yezithwala ingatholakala ngokungemthetho kubalimi basendle ngesikhathi sentwasahlobo lapho ukuzingela kungavunyelwe.
Enye inkinga yizithiyo ezikhula emizileni yokufuduka, lapho ama-deer azulazula khona amakhulu eminyaka. Akusikhona njalo ukuthi kwakhiwa imigwaqo, amapayipi nezinye izinto ezihambelana nomugqa kucatshangelwa “izidingo” zezilwane. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, kuye kweqiwa futhi okwedlule. Ama-deers agijimela esivumelwaneni sokufakelwa bese efa, angafiki emadlelweni, noma abe yisisulu sabazingeli.
Ukusindiswa kwesiqu
Ngokusho kukaMizin, ochwepheshe bayavuma ukuthi inani lamakhosi asendle "ancishiswe kakhulu", futhi kudingeka izindlela ezikhethekile zokugcina lesi silwane esibalulekile. "Njengesinyathelo esibaluleke kakhulu, imigomo yokuzingela izingwe zasendle kumele incishiswe. Ukuzingela akufanele kuqhutshwe kusuka ekwindla kuye entwasahlobo, kepha ezinyangeni zasebusika kuphela," usosayensi uyakholelwa.
Ochwepheshe baphawula ukwehla komsebenzi wombuso ngokulawula ukuzingela nokuzingela kwezilwane. Kuyadingeka ukuqinisa ukulawulwa kokukhishwa kwamalayisense nokukhiqizwa kwezilwane, ukubuyisa uhlelo lokuqoqa imininingwane ethembekile, ikakhulukazi, lapho kwenziwa ucwaningo lwasemoyeni lwaseRussia, kanye nokulawula ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe kanye nokuphuma kwalo emakethe yasekhaya.
Ngokusho kukaKolpashchikov, eTaimyr kungenzeka ukuthatha izithombe zabantu abaphambili ngosizo lwendiza encane futhi ungabheki inani labo kuphela, kepha nobudala babo nokwakhiwa kwabo kwezocansi. Ngale miphumela, ososayensi bayakwazi ukubala inani lezilwane emodeli esetshenziswe amashumishumi eminyaka.
"Ukuze kusindiswe inani labakwaTaimyr, kubalulekile ukuhlela ukulawulwa okuqinile kombuso ngenkathi kudotshwa, kuvinjelwe ukuzingela kwentwasahlobo nokuhlwanyelwa kwezinyamazane," kusho usosayensi.
Umthombo TASS
Ukuqina kwezilwane zasendle eNenets Autonomous Area kuyanyamalala ngenxa yephutha labazingeli. Ubungako bembala yasendle yaseTiman yehle kakhulu. Isithombe esinjengalesi sabonwa ngongcweti obeqhuba ubusika bokubhaliswa kwama-deer emapayipini ocwaningo engxenyeni esentshonalanga yeNenets Autonomous Okrug. Lokhu kuhlola okwokuqala kungamashumi eminyaka ambalwa. Ngokusho kweWWF, kwi-NAO ngonyaka ka-2010 bekukhona izilwane eziyizinkulungwane ezi-4,5 kuye kweziyi-5, kanti okwamanje azikho ngaphezulu kwezilwane ezingama-500 ezisele.
Uma sikhuluma ngesibalo sonke seTiman, khona-ke ngasekupheleni kweminyaka engama-70-80s yekhulu lokugcina, kwakukhona kusuka kwabangu-12 kuya ku-15 izinkulungwane zezinyamazane, manje kukhona abacishe babe yinkulungwane nengxenye.
Ividiyo: Impendulo yeNcwadi Ebomvu - Ukuzalela ekudingisweni - isayensi
NgoNovemba, i-White Buffalo Corporation, okuyinhlangano engenzi nzuzo esekwe ezinhlelweni zokucwaninga ngezilwane nezasendle, ihlela ukukhipha izimbotshana ezingaba ngu-40 ezakhiwe ngamachwane amhlophe ahlala eCincinnati, kubandakanya iMount Storm Clifton Park phakathi nesonto. kanye neLesito Woods Nature Reserve.
ECincinnati, kuqalwa uhlelo lokunciphisa isibalo sezinyamazane ezimhlophe.
Umongameli wenkampani i-White Buffalo uthe, njengoba bekulindelekile, isibalo sabadwebi abasebenza ngemhlophe, ngemuva kokuqaliswa ngempumelelo kwalolu hlelo, sizokwehla ngamaphesenti angama-40 eminyakeni emibili ezayo.